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AI models odds on Kalshi today

Snapshot October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · 17 open events · refreshed twice a day

Markets on AI model releases, benchmarks and AGI timelines.

As of October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, Kalshi lists 17 open AI models events (single games and markets closing within hours left out). Most traded in the last 24 hours: Top AI model this week? (gemini-4-argon-high 52%), When will Google release Gemini 4? (Before Jan 1, 2027 97%), When will any company achieve AGI? (Before Jan 1, 2031 82%).

EventLeading outcome24h volumeCloses
Top AI model this week?gemini-4-argon-high 52%18.1KOctober 12, 2026
When will Google release Gemini 4?Before Jan 1, 2027 97%8.0KJanuary 1, 2027
When will any company achieve AGI?Before Jan 1, 2031 82%4.1KJanuary 1, 2031
Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena scoreabove 1490 24%3.5KJanuary 1, 2027
Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year?Yes 7.5%2.5KJanuary 1, 2027
Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?OpenAI 16%1.8KJanuary 1, 2027
When will OpenAI achieve AGI?Before 2030 65%962January 1, 2030
Next Gemini Pro model releaseBefore Dec 1, 2026 34%803December 1, 2026
Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?Anthropic 74%522December 31, 2026
When will Anthropic release Claude 6?Before Dec 31, 2027 92%350December 31, 2027
Top AI model this monthgemini-4-argon-high 50%129October 31, 2026
When will xAI release Grok 5?Before 2027 52%68January 1, 2027
Will an AI model using neuralese recurrence be first released to the public before 2027?Yes 82%5January 1, 2027
Will Tesla release a two door Model Y car for $30,000 or less before 2027?Yes 5.0%1January 1, 2027
When will OpenAI release GPT-7?Before 2028 84%0January 1, 2028
Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess?Before 2029 96%0January 1, 2030
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?OpenAI 85%0January 1, 2030

For multi-outcome events the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for single-market events it is the Yes price. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.

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Cite this data

APA

AI models odds on Kalshi today. (2026, October 6). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/topic/ai-models/

BibTeX

@misc{kalshiview2026marketstopicaimodels, title = {AI models odds on Kalshi today}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-06 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/topic/ai-models/}}

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<a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/topic/ai-models/">Odds data: Kalshi View</a>

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Frequently asked questions

What are the Kalshi AI models odds today?

As of October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, Kalshi lists 17 open AI models events (single games and markets closing within hours left out). Most traded in the last 24 hours: Top AI model this week? (gemini-4-argon-high 52%), When will Google release Gemini 4? (Before Jan 1, 2027 97%), When will any company achieve AGI? (Before Jan 1, 2031 82%).

How often is this list updated?

Twice a day from Kalshi's public API. Each row links to a dated odds page or to Kalshi.