Election 2026 Senate Control Markets on Kalshi: What Traders Should Watch
This page is a static trader checklist, not a live probability tracker. Current prices can only come from Kalshi itself; this guide covers what to...
Regulated US prediction markets
A trader's field notes on Kalshi.
I'm Jake Morrison, a Chicago-based former CME equity index futures quant. I write about Kalshi markets, liquidity, fees, election odds, macro contracts, and what actually matters when real money is on the line.
Kalshi guides
Start with what Kalshi is, then compare Polymarket VPN risk and the Kalshi US alternative before digging into fees, KYC, settlement, taxes, order books, and market structure.
Payout calculator
Estimate implied probability, cash at risk, break-even price, and payout before sizing a YES or NO contract.
Market reads
Macro, election, sports, crypto, and geopolitics contracts viewed through liquidity and expected value. Start with the ticker and news guide.
Realistic risk
No guaranteed edge, no signal selling, no hype. Prediction markets are speculative and you can lose money.
Latest articles
ISM Manufacturing Markets on Kalshi: Worth Watching?
Every month, the Institute for Supply Management releases its manufacturing PMI number, and for about 48 hours beforehand, I find myself checking...
Unemployment Rate Markets on Kalshi: How to Position
Every month the Bureau of Labor Statistics drops a single number that moves billions in equities, bonds, and now prediction markets. I've started...
Trading Retail Sales on Kalshi: Holiday Season Edition
Every November, I start watching the retail calendar more closely than my relatives watch for Black Friday deals. The holiday quarter is when...