Supreme Court Odds on Kalshi Today: 61 Open Markets

Snapshot September 24, 2026 at 11:56 UTC · 61 open events · refreshed twice a day

Event	Leading outcome	24h volume	Closes
When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court?	Before Jul 1, 2027 32%	778	July 1, 2027
Will the SCOTUS hear a case about AI and copyright law before 2027?	Yes 7.3%	476	January 1, 2027
What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026?	Bird v. Iowa Migrant Movement for Justice 40%	255	January 1, 2027
How many Supreme Court justices will the President confirm?	2 38%	213	January 20, 2029
Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?	Samuel Alito 62%	129	January 20, 2029
New Supreme Court justice confirmed?	Before Jan 21, 2029 76%	115	January 21, 2029
Will SCOTUS let USPS enforce ballot-mail rules?	Yes 1.5%	100	November 3, 2026
Will SCOTUS permit Missouri's HB 1 House map?	Yes 8.5%	59	November 3, 2026
Will the Supreme Court hear a case on Trump's tariffs in 2026?	Yes 8.0%	46	January 1, 2027
Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?	Andrew Oldham 22%	21	January 21, 2029
Will Jim Justice announce a West Virginia governor run?	Before Nov 1, 2026 53%	20	January 29, 2028
Will Alexandre de Moraes leave Brazil's Supreme Court?	Yes 29%	6	January 1, 2027
Will the Supreme Court overturn gay marriage?	Yes 7.8%	0	January 1, 2029
Will US Supreme Court ban transgender girls and women from competing on female sports teams?	Yes 22%	0	January 1, 2029
What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term?	6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals 70%	0	January 20, 2029
Will Trump talk to a sitting Supreme Court justice?	Yes 66%	0	January 1, 2027
Will the Supreme Court hear a 3rd Amendment case before Trump's term ends?	Yes 7.5%	0	January 20, 2029
Will any Supreme Court Justice be charged with a federal crime?	Yes 4.5%	0	January 1, 2027
Will the size of the Supreme Court be changed during Trump's Presidency?	Yes 2.1%	0	January 20, 2029
Will SCOTUS recognize a right to possess AR-15-style rifles?	Yes 79%	0	January 1, 2030
Will SCOTUS end the White House ballroom injunction?	Yes 47%	0	January 1, 2029
Will the SCOTUS hear a case about flag burning before 2027?	Yes 6.3%	0	January 1, 2027
Ohio Supreme Court: Hawkins seat winner?	Dan Hawkins 76%	0	November 3, 2027
Will SCOTUS require 12-person juries for serious felonies?	Yes 79%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS bar unpled affirmative defenses at summary judgment?	Yes 80%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS overturn or narrow Stinson deference to federal sentencing-guideline commentary?	Yes 69%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS allow religious chilling-effect claims without a final land-use decision?	Yes 85%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS allow First Step Act halfway-house claims under §2241?	Yes 58%	0	August 1, 2028
Will the Supreme Court bar Boulder’s state-law climate claims against Suncor and Exxon?	Yes 72%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS treat trademark strength as a factual question?	Yes 69%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS reject narrow Free Exercise tests for Catholic preschools?	Yes 73%	0	August 1, 2028
North Carolina Supreme Court winner?	Anita Earls 78%	0	November 3, 2027
Will SCOTUS require state-law compensation in private natural-gas condemnations?	Yes 54%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS reject a benchmark requirement for ERISA fund-underperformance claims?	Yes 43%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS overturn Trump's $83.3 million Carroll judgment?	Yes 9.5%	0	January 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS bar Watanabe’s Bivens medical-care claim?	Yes 78%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS let the Labor Department impose H-2A monetary remedies through agency proceedings?	Yes 15%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS let people seek green cards after their asylum is terminated?	Yes 3.0%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS hold that EAJA covers immigration-detention habeas actions?	Yes 61%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS let district courts hear constitutional challenges to veterans-benefits laws?	Yes 74%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS allow school employees to sue under Title IX for workplace sex discrimination?	Yes 30%	0	August 1, 2028
Ohio Supreme Court: Brunner seat winner?	Colleen O’Donnell 59%	0	November 3, 2027
Will SCOTUS allow Arizona’s citizenship-proof and pre-election noncitizen-removal rules?	Yes 69%	0	August 1, 2028
Montana Supreme Court winner?	Amy Eddy 80%	0	November 3, 2027
Michigan Supreme Court election winners?	Democrat sweep 50%	0	November 3, 2027
Will SCOTUS count subscribers to a video provider’s non-video offerings as VPPA consumers?	Yes 37%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS let parents challenge laws that displace them from their children’s gender-transition decisions?	Yes 94%	0	August 1, 2028
Washington Supreme Court Position 5 winner?	Theo Angelis 80%	0	November 3, 2027
Washington Supreme Court Position 3 winner?	Jaime Hawk 20%	0	November 3, 2027
Will SCOTUS bar the immediate NEPA challenge to the Air Force’s Guam hazardous-waste permit application?	Yes 71%	0	August 1, 2028

For multi-outcome events the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for single-market events it is the Yes price. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.

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