Supreme Court Odds on Kalshi Today: 62 Open Markets

Snapshot October 5, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · 62 open events · refreshed twice a day

Event	Leading outcome	24h volume	Closes
What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026?	Roybal v. Griffith 40%	3.0K	January 1, 2027
When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court?	Before Jul 1, 2027 29%	1.2K	July 1, 2027
Will Alexandre de Moraes leave Brazil's Supreme Court?	Yes 22%	946	January 1, 2027
Will SCOTUS end the White House ballroom injunction?	Yes 23%	720	January 1, 2029
Will the Supreme Court bar Boulder’s state-law climate claims against Suncor and Exxon?	Yes 65%	598	August 1, 2028
Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?	Andrew Oldham 20%	420	January 21, 2029
Will the Supreme Court hear a case on Trump's tariffs in 2026?	Yes 11%	307	January 1, 2027
Will SCOTUS let USPS enforce ballot-mail rules?	Yes 4.0%	141	November 3, 2026
Will US Supreme Court ban transgender girls and women from competing on female sports teams?	Yes 22%	57	January 1, 2029
Will Jim Justice announce a West Virginia governor run?	Before Jan 29, 2028 68%	36	January 29, 2028
Will SCOTUS recognize a right to possess AR-15-style rifles?	Yes 83%	18	January 1, 2030
Will SCOTUS reject narrow Free Exercise tests for Catholic preschools?	Yes 77%	12	August 1, 2028
How many Supreme Court justices will the President confirm?	0 40%	10	January 20, 2029
Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?	Samuel Alito 72%	8	January 20, 2029
Ohio Supreme Court: Brunner seat winner?	Colleen O’Donnell 60%	8	November 3, 2027
New Supreme Court justice confirmed?	Before Jan 21, 2029 52%	0	January 21, 2029
Will the Supreme Court overturn gay marriage?	Yes 12%	0	January 1, 2029
What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term?	6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals 74%	0	January 20, 2029
Will SCOTUS permit Missouri's HB 1 House map?	Yes 2.0%	0	November 3, 2026
Will Trump talk to a sitting Supreme Court justice?	Yes 62%	0	January 1, 2027
Will the SCOTUS hear a case about AI and copyright law before 2027?	Yes 7.3%	0	January 1, 2027
Will the Supreme Court hear a 3rd Amendment case before Trump's term ends?	Yes 6.7%	0	January 20, 2029
Will any Supreme Court Justice be charged with a federal crime?	Yes 6.5%	0	January 1, 2027
Will the size of the Supreme Court be changed during Trump's Presidency?	Yes 5.1%	0	January 20, 2029
Will the SCOTUS hear a case about flag burning before 2027?	Yes 6.3%	0	January 1, 2027
Ohio Supreme Court: Hawkins seat winner?	Dan Hawkins 76%	0	November 3, 2027
Will SCOTUS require 12-person juries for serious felonies?	Yes 79%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS overturn or narrow Stinson deference to federal sentencing-guideline commentary?	Yes 62%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS bar unpled affirmative defenses at summary judgment?	Yes 56%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS treat trademark strength as a factual question?	Yes 73%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS allow religious chilling-effect claims without a final land-use decision?	Yes 89%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS allow First Step Act halfway-house claims under §2241?	Yes 63%	0	August 1, 2028
North Carolina Supreme Court winner?	Anita Earls 82%	0	November 3, 2027
Will SCOTUS reject a benchmark requirement for ERISA fund-underperformance claims?	Yes 45%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS require state-law compensation in private natural-gas condemnations?	Yes 50%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS overturn Trump's $83.3 million Carroll judgment?	Yes 8.5%	0	January 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS bar Watanabe’s Bivens medical-care claim?	Yes 76%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS let the Labor Department impose H-2A monetary remedies through agency proceedings?	Yes 20%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS let people seek green cards after their asylum is terminated?	Yes 30%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS hold that EAJA covers immigration-detention habeas actions?	Yes 62%	0	August 1, 2028
Texas Supreme Court Chief Justice winner?	Jimmy Blacklock 70%	0	November 3, 2027
Texas Supreme Court Place 7 winner?	Kyle Hawkins 84%	0	November 3, 2027
Will SCOTUS let district courts hear constitutional challenges to veterans-benefits laws?	Yes 71%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS allow school employees to sue under Title IX for workplace sex discrimination?	Yes 34%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS allow Arizona’s citizenship-proof and pre-election noncitizen-removal rules?	Yes 66%	0	August 1, 2028
Will Paul Wilson be retained on the Missouri Supreme Court?	Yes 86%	0	November 3, 2027
Montana Supreme Court winner?	Amy Eddy 50%	0	November 3, 2027
Michigan Supreme Court election winners?	Democrat sweep 85%	0	November 3, 2027
Will SCOTUS count subscribers to a video provider’s non-video offerings as VPPA consumers?	Yes 40%	0	August 1, 2028
Washington Supreme Court Position 3 winner?	David Stevens 80%	0	November 3, 2027

For multi-outcome events the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for single-market events it is the Yes price. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.

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