Supreme Court Odds on Kalshi Today: 52 Open Markets

Snapshot November 7, 2026 at 16:22 UTC · 52 open events · refreshed twice a day

Event	Leading outcome	24h volume	Closes
When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court?	Before Jul 1, 2027 18%	9.2K	July 1, 2027
How many Supreme Court justices will the President confirm?	0 78%	662	January 20, 2029
Who will be the next Supreme Court justice in Trump's term?	Andrew Oldham 5.4%	640	January 21, 2029
Will the SCOTUS hear a case about AI and copyright law before 2027?	Yes 9.0%	611	January 1, 2027
Will SCOTUS reject narrow Free Exercise tests for Catholic preschools?	Yes 84%	595	August 1, 2028
New Supreme Court justice confirmed?	Before Jan 21, 2029 32%	563	January 21, 2029
What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026?	Roybal v. Griffith 66%	396	January 1, 2027
Will SCOTUS allow First Step Act halfway-house claims under §2241?	Yes 82%	295	August 1, 2028
Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?	Samuel Alito 51%	139	January 20, 2029
Will SCOTUS overturn or narrow Stinson deference to federal sentencing-guideline commentary?	Yes 25%	139	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS bar Watanabe’s Bivens medical-care claim?	Yes 75%	125	August 1, 2028
Will the Supreme Court hear a case on Trump's tariffs in 2026?	Yes 7.1%	98	January 1, 2027
Will Jim Justice announce a West Virginia governor run?	Before Jan 29, 2028 62%	64	January 29, 2028
Will the Supreme Court overturn gay marriage?	Yes 7.4%	59	January 1, 2029
Will SCOTUS let district courts hear constitutional challenges to veterans-benefits laws?	Yes 20%	25	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS count subscribers to a video provider’s non-video offerings as VPPA consumers?	Yes 64%	12	August 1, 2028
Will US Supreme Court ban transgender girls and women from competing on female sports teams?	Yes 22%	7	January 1, 2029
Will Alexandre de Moraes leave Brazil's Supreme Court?	Before Jan 1, 2028 45%	6	January 1, 2028
Will Trump talk to a sitting Supreme Court justice?	Before Apr 1, 2027 68%	2	April 1, 2027
Will Eric Rosen be retained on the Kansas Supreme Court?	Yes 98%	1	November 3, 2027
Who will be Israeli justice minister after the election?	Simcha Rothman 6.0%	0	October 27, 2027
What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term?	6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals 70%	0	January 20, 2029
Will the Supreme Court hear a 3rd Amendment case before Trump's term ends?	Yes 4.8%	0	January 20, 2029
Will any Supreme Court Justice be charged with a federal crime?	Yes 5.0%	0	January 1, 2027
Will SCOTUS end the White House ballroom injunction?	Yes 41%	0	January 1, 2029
Will SCOTUS recognize a right to possess AR-15-style rifles?	Yes 88%	0	January 1, 2030
Will the size of the Supreme Court be changed during Trump's Presidency?	Yes 8.8%	0	January 20, 2029
Will the Supreme Court bar Boulder’s state-law climate claims against Suncor and Exxon?	Yes 62%	0	August 1, 2028
Will the SCOTUS hear a case about flag burning before 2027?	Yes 6.3%	0	January 1, 2027
Will SCOTUS rule for DHS on third-country deportations?	Yes 74%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS bar unpled affirmative defenses at summary judgment?	Yes 76%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS require 12-person juries for serious felonies?	Yes 76%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS reject a benchmark requirement for ERISA fund-underperformance claims?	Yes 12%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS treat trademark strength as a factual question?	Yes 65%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS allow religious chilling-effect claims without a final land-use decision?	Yes 83%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS require state-law compensation in private natural-gas condemnations?	Yes 54%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS overturn Trump's $83.3 million Carroll judgment?	Yes 9.0%	0	January 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS bar successive habeas claims that could have been raised earlier?	Yes 80%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS hold that EAJA covers immigration-detention habeas actions?	Yes 68%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS let the Labor Department impose H-2A monetary remedies through agency proceedings?	Yes 20%	0	August 1, 2028
Will the Supreme Court have more than 9 seats before 2030?	Yes 26%	0	January 1, 2030
Will SCOTUS let people seek green cards after their asylum is terminated?	Yes 26%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS allow school employees to sue under Title IX for workplace sex discrimination?	Yes 34%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS bar the immediate NEPA challenge to the Air Force’s Guam hazardous-waste permit application?	Yes 87%	0	August 1, 2028
Will the House pass a bill expanding the Supreme Court?	Yes 12%	0	January 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS allow Arizona’s citizenship-proof and pre-election noncitizen-removal rules?	Yes 64%	0	August 1, 2028
Will Paul Wilson be retained on the Missouri Supreme Court?	Yes 98%	0	November 3, 2027
Will SCOTUS bar contempt for conduct not clearly prohibited by an injunction?	Yes 76%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS let parents challenge laws that displace them from their children’s gender-transition decisions?	Yes 90%	0	August 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS require courts to consider a defendant’s specific wrongdoing in excessive-fines cases?	Yes 80%	0	August 1, 2028

For multi-outcome events the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for single-market events it is the Yes price. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.

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