OpenAI Odds on Kalshi Today: 32 Open Markets

Snapshot October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · 32 open events · refreshed twice a day

As of October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, Kalshi lists 32 open OpenAI events (single games and markets closing within hours left out). Most traded in the last 24 hours: OpenAI market share this week (Above 16.5% 100%), When will OpenAI release a personal AI agent? (Before Jan 1, 2027 32%), When will OpenAI achieve AGI? (Before 2030 63%).

Event	Leading outcome	24h volume	Closes
OpenAI market share this week	Above 16.5% 100%	141.5K	October 12, 2026
When will OpenAI release a personal AI agent?	Before Jan 1, 2027 32%	3.1K	January 1, 2027
When will OpenAI achieve AGI?	Before 2030 63%	2.8K	January 1, 2030
Sam Altman replaced as OpenAI CEO this year?	Yes 6.0%	926	January 1, 2027
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?	Anthropic 94%	804	January 1, 2040
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution?	Before Jan 1, 2028 75%	212	January 1, 2028
Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement?	Before Jan 1, 2029 70%	209	December 31, 2028
Will Sébastien Bubeck leave OpenAI?	Yes 10%	200	January 1, 2027
ChatGPT App Downloads in October	Above 35 98%	128	November 8, 2026
When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1?	Before Nov 13, 2026 16%	90	November 13, 2026
New York Times wins OpenAI lawsuit?	Yes 58%	81	January 1, 2028
Will Leopold Aschenbrenner return to OpenAI?	Yes 3.0%	50	January 1, 2027
Which banks will take OpenAI public?	Stifel Financial 40%	35	January 1, 2028
How low will the OpenAI GPT 5.5 input token price get in 2026?	$4/MTok or below 31%	31	April 1, 2027
When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?	Before Jun 1, 2027 52%	31	June 1, 2027
What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?	Clip-on device for clothing 8.5%	10	January 1, 2027
OpenAI share of requests on Oct 12, 2026 (Vercel)	Above 19.3% 65%	5	October 13, 2026
Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT?	Yes 13%	4	January 1, 2027
OpenAI corporate adoption rate in September	Above 39.5% 82%	3	October 17, 2026
What sector will OpenAI be assigned to?	Information Technology 88%	2	January 11, 2028
How low will the OpenAI GPT 5.5 output token price get in 2026?	$25/MTok or below 16%	2	April 1, 2027
Will the OpenAI/Jony Ive device have a screen?	Yes 8.5%	0	January 1, 2027
Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO?	Goldman Sachs 76%	0	January 1, 2028
Will OpenAI pay a tort claim with more than $1 million in damages before 2028?	Yes 54%	0	January 1, 2028
When will OpenAI release GPT-7?	Before 2028 82%	0	January 1, 2028
Will Sam Altman hold super-voting OpenAI shares at IPO?	Yes 24%	0	January 1, 2028
Will the U.S. take at least 1% stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic?	Before Jan 20, 2029 50%	0	January 20, 2029
Will Tristan Buckmaster sue OpenAI or Bubeck?	Yes 12%	0	January 1, 2027
Will Apple win its case against OpenAI?	Yes 55%	0	January 1, 2029
OpenAI share of spend on Oct 12, 2026 (Vercel)	Above 17.1% 72%	0	October 13, 2026
OpenAI share of spend on Oct 14, 2026 (Vercel)	Above 15.7% 62%	0	October 15, 2026
OpenAI share of requests on Oct 14, 2026 (Vercel)	Above 21.8% 68%	0	October 15, 2026

For multi-outcome events the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for single-market events it is the Yes price. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.

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