Snapshot September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC · Category: Companies · Event KXAGICO-COMP
As of September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC, the leading outcome is Before Jan 1, 2030 at 82%, followed by Before Jan 1, 2029 at 81%, Before Jan 1, 2031 at 80%. 158.3K contracts have traded, 8.0K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h change | Volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2030 | 82% | · | 4.4K | 2.3K |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 81% | +8 pts | 4.0K | 2.4K |
| Before Jan 1, 2031 | 80% | +1 pts | 8.6K | 3.5K |
| Before Oct 1, 2028 | 80% | · | 4.3K | 3.1K |
| Before Jul 1, 2028 | 78% | · | 4.7K | 4.1K |
| Before Apr 1, 2028 | 75% | · | 6.0K | 4.9K |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 70% | -6 pts | 13.7K | 5.1K |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | 48% | -1 pts | 18.3K | 9.7K |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 40% | -5 pts | 18.0K | 8.3K |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 27% | · | 14.6K | 8.7K |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 14% | +1 pts | 23.0K | 10.3K |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 1.5% | · | 38.6K | 14.6K |
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
■ Before Jan 1, 2030 ■ Before Jan 1, 2029 ■ Before Jan 1, 2031 · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. To qualify, the announcement must explicitly state that the company has achieved, attained, reached, or developed Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), or that it has achieved, attained, reached, or developed “AGI.” Statements that describe “AGI-like,” “AGI-level,” “near-AGI,” or “toward AGI” systems without explicitly stating that the company has achieved/attained/reached/developed AGI do not qualify. For purposes of this market, a “company” includes any publicly traded company or any privately held company whose existence and corporate identity is verifiable and whose financing/valuation or corporate profile is covered by at least two of the listed major business news sources.”
Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees and the payout calculator.
As of September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC, the leading outcome is Before Jan 1, 2030 at 82%, followed by Before Jan 1, 2029 at 81%, Before Jan 1, 2031 at 80%. 158.3K contracts have traded, 8.0K in the last 24 hours.
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
The listed close dates range from October 1, 2026 to January 1, 2031. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
Paste on your site or newsletter; it updates with this page.
<iframe src="https://kalshiview.com/embed/markets/when-will-any-company-achieve-agi/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="When will any company achieve AGI? Kalshi odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/when-will-any-company-achieve-agi/">When will any company achieve AGI? odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
/api/v1/markets/when-will-any-company-achieve-agi.json (CC BY 4.0: credit “Kalshi View” with a link).