Snapshot October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Companies · Event KXAGICO-COMP
As of October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Before Jan 1, 2031 at 82%, followed by Before Jan 1, 2030 at 82%, Before Jan 1, 2029 at 78%. 219.7K contracts have traded, 4.3K in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Before Jan 1, 2031 ■ Before Jan 1, 2030 ■ Before Jan 1, 2029 · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. To qualify, the announcement must explicitly state that the company has achieved, attained, reached, or developed Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), or that it has achieved, attained, reached, or developed “AGI.” Statements that describe “AGI-like,” “AGI-level,” “near-AGI,” or “toward AGI” systems without explicitly stating that the company has achieved/attained/reached/developed AGI do not qualify. For purposes of this market, a “company” includes any publicly traded company or any privately held company whose existence and corporate identity is verifiable and whose financing/valuation or corporate profile is covered by at least two of the listed major business news sources.”
What are the Kalshi odds for When will any company achieve AGI?
As of October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Before Jan 1, 2031 at 82%, followed by Before Jan 1, 2030 at 82%, Before Jan 1, 2029 at 78%. 219.7K contracts have traded, 4.3K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the When will any company achieve AGI market close?
The listed close dates range from January 1, 2027 to January 1, 2031. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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When will any company achieve AGI? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 8). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/when-will-any-company-achieve-agi/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketswhenwillanycompanyachieveagi, title = {When will any company achieve AGI? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-08 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/when-will-any-company-achieve-agi/}}
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