| Event | Leading outcome | 24h volume | Closes |
|---|
| Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? | Stephen Miller 96% | 2.7M | January 1, 2027 |
| Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary? | Anna Kelly 20% | 369.0K | January 27, 2029 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? | Before Jan 1, 2029 88% | 325.3K | January 1, 2029 |
| 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) | Democrats, 14 to 16% 88% | 276.8K | November 3, 2027 |
| Blue wave in 2026? | Yes 99% | 188.6K | February 1, 2027 |
| Will the House impeach Trump? | Before Jan 1, 2028 58% | 178.1K | January 1, 2028 |
| Will the Onion Futures Act be repealed? | Before 2030 30% | 162.6K | January 1, 2030 |
| How many days will U.S. cattle imports from Sonora be suspended? | 30 days or more 12% | 100.0K | April 1, 2027 |
| Blue tsunami in 2026? | Yes 99% | 89.3K | February 1, 2027 |
| Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/2 - 11/8) | Above 15 96% | 70.4K | November 10, 2026 |
| Pete Hegseth departure announced? | Before Jan 1, 2027 42% | 47.4K | January 1, 2027 |
| Will Mamdani sign an executive order this week? (11/1 - 11/7) | Yes 1.0% | 45.8K | November 8, 2026 |
| Marco Rubio announces departure as Secretary of State? | Before Jan 1, 2029 92% | 42.5K | January 1, 2029 |
| Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? | Ilhan Omar 24% | 39.2K | January 1, 2027 |
| Will Pete Hegseth be impeached? | Before Jul 1, 2027 74% | 36.6K | July 1, 2027 |
| How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (11/1-11/7) | At least 3 100% | 31.1K | November 8, 2026 |
| When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? | Before Jan 1, 2029 70% | 25.5K | January 1, 2029 |
| Will the SAVE Act become law? | Yes 1.5% | 24.7K | January 4, 2027 |
| Will Trump resign during his term? | Yes 26% | 22.1K | January 21, 2029 |
| Will the SAVE America Act become law? | Before Jan 1, 2028 7.0% | 21.0K | January 1, 2028 |
| Will Trump declare an election emergency? | Yes 3.5% | 16.8K | January 1, 2027 |
| Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death) | Before January 20, 2029 32% | 16.5K | January 20, 2029 |
| Will President Trump be impeached during his term? | Yes 72% | 15.5K | January 20, 2029 |
| Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/2 - 11/8) | Above 3 96% | 15.4K | November 10, 2026 |
| Traffic through the Suez Canal? (11/2 - 11/8) | Above 260 98% | 15.3K | November 10, 2026 |
| Will the House vote on impeaching Pete Hegseth? | Before Jan 1, 2027 82% | 14.5K | January 1, 2027 |
| Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/2 - 11/8) | Above 150 98% | 14.5K | November 10, 2026 |
| Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (11/2 - 11/8) | November 6 46% | 13.9K | November 10, 2026 |
| Will Trump impose martial law? | Before Jan 20, 2029 14% | 13.5K | January 20, 2029 |
| How many House seats will Democrats win in the Midterms? | At least 254 100% | 13.2K | January 3, 2027 |
| Will Trump be impeached and removed from office? | Before his term ends 22% | 13.1K | January 20, 2029 |
| Who will be Chair of Senate Banking? | Elizabeth Warren 90% | 12.9K | February 1, 2027 |
| Will a Democratic Senator call for Schumer to step down as leader? | Yes 76% | 12.9K | January 1, 2027 |
| How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (11/1 - 11/7) | Above 1 3.5% | 12.6K | November 21, 2026 |
| How many nominees will the Senate confirm in the lame duck? | At least 10 96% | 11.4K | January 4, 2027 |
| Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026? | Yes 30% | 11.3K | December 12, 2026 |
| How many days will Trump be photographed this week? (11/2-11/8) | 5 50% | 11.2K | November 9, 2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | Yes 1.5% | 10.7K | January 1, 2027 |
| Will Trump issue dividend payments? | Before Apr 1, 2027 6.5% | 10.0K | April 1, 2027 |
| Who will Trump pardon in 2026? | Larry Householder 20% | 10.0K | January 1, 2027 |
| How many Senate Republicans will vote to convict Trump? | At least 1 58% | 9.9K | January 20, 2029 |
| Will Ilhan Omar's citizenship be revoked in 2026? | Yes 1.5% | 9.7K | January 1, 2027 |
| When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court? | Before Jul 1, 2027 18% | 9.2K | July 1, 2027 |
| Who will be Ranking Member of Senate HELP Committee? | Josh Hawley 52% | 9.1K | February 1, 2027 |
| Will the filibuster be weakened? | Before Jan 1, 2030 68% | 8.8K | January 1, 2030 |
| Will the Clarity Act become law? | Before Jan 1, 2028 22% | 8.7K | January 1, 2028 |
| Who will get Israel's first mandate to form a government? | Gadi Eisenkot 98% | 8.6K | January 1, 2027 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal? | Before Jan 20, 2029 51% | 8.4K | January 20, 2029 |
| Who will hold Marsha Blackburn's Senate seat on February 1, 2027? | Glenn Jacobs 48% | 7.5K | February 1, 2027 |
| Will the US take control of any part of Greenland? | Before January 21, 2029 16% | 7.2K | January 21, 2029 |