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Kalshi Climate and Weather odds today

Snapshot September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC · 18 open events · refreshed twice a day

As of September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC, Kalshi lists 18 open Climate and Weather events (single games and markets closing within hours left out). Most traded in the last 24 hours: What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season? (At least 3.0°C 53%), Lake Mead end-of-month water elevation in Dec 2026? (Above 1033 Ft 66%), Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050? (Yes 66%).

EventLeading outcome24h volumeCloses
What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season?At least 3.0°C 53%2.8KAugust 15, 2027
Lake Mead end-of-month water elevation in Dec 2026?Above 1033 Ft 66%2.3KJanuary 7, 2027
Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?Yes 66%264January 1, 2050
When will Mt. Bachelor open for the 26/27 winter season?Before Jan 3, 2027 92%144January 9, 2027
What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?Oil 64%88December 30, 2032
8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?Yes 38%54January 1, 2030
US meets its climate goals?By 2030 18%32December 31, 2035
Major volcano eruption in 2026?At least 1 82%11June 29, 2027
EU meets its 2030 climate goals?Yes 41%5December 31, 2032
India meets its 2030 climate goals?Yes 62%2December 31, 2031
Will the average minimum temperature in Texas (DFW & IAH) fall below 20°F for at least 2 days within a 4-day span?Before 2029 65%2January 1, 2029
When will Sierra-at-Tahoe open for the 26/27 winter season?Before Jan 10, 2027 91%2January 16, 2027
EV market share in 2030?Above 10% 84%0May 1, 2030
Will a supervolcano erupt before 2050?Yes 27%0January 1, 2050
Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?Yes 30%0December 31, 2035
Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2028?Yes 14%0December 31, 2028
What will the peak RONI value for El Niño be during the NDJ 2026-27 season?At least 2.5°C 76%0April 5, 2027
What will the peak RONI value be for the NDJ 2026-27 quarter?At least 2.0°C 95%0April 5, 2027

For multi-outcome events the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for single-market events it is the Yes price. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.

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Frequently asked questions

What are the most traded Kalshi Climate and Weather markets right now?

As of September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC, Kalshi lists 18 open Climate and Weather events (single games and markets closing within hours left out). Most traded in the last 24 hours: What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season? (At least 3.0°C 53%), Lake Mead end-of-month water elevation in Dec 2026? (Above 1033 Ft 66%), Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050? (Yes 66%).

How often is this list updated?

Twice a day from Kalshi's public API. Each row links to a dated odds page or to Kalshi.