Snapshot September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC · Category: Politics · Event KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03
As of September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC, the leading outcome is Democrats, 8 to 10% at 28%, followed by Democrats, 10 to 12% at 22%, Democrats, 6 to 8% at 16%. 1.7M contracts have traded, 17.2K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h change | Volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats, 8 to 10% | 28% | · | 156.7K | 136.3K |
| Democrats, 10 to 12% | 22% | +1 pts | 131.1K | 107.1K |
| Democrats, 6 to 8% | 16% | -1 pts | 106.6K | 92.6K |
| Democrats, 12 to 14% | 14% | +1 pts | 116.9K | 96.2K |
| Democrats, 4 to 6% | 8.1% | · | 82.3K | 76.5K |
| Republicans win | 5.5% | +1 pts | 550.9K | 363.8K |
| Democrats, 14 to 16% | 5.1% | · | 75.9K | 57.3K |
| Democrats, 2 to 4% | 3.5% | · | 159.8K | 135.4K |
| Democrats, 16% and above | 2.2% | · | 121.5K | 99.1K |
| Democrats, 0 to 2% | 1.4% | -2 pts | 233.9K | 194.9K |
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
■ Democrats, 8 to 10% ■ Democrats, 10 to 12% ■ Democrats, 6 to 8% · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, …”
Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees and the payout calculator.
As of September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC, the leading outcome is Democrats, 8 to 10% at 28%, followed by Democrats, 10 to 12% at 22%, Democrats, 6 to 8% at 16%. 1.7M contracts have traded, 17.2K in the last 24 hours.
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
The listed close date is November 3, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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<iframe src="https://kalshiview.com/embed/markets/2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-generic-ballot/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) Kalshi odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-generic-ballot/">2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
/api/v1/markets/2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-generic-ballot.json (CC BY 4.0: credit “Kalshi View” with a link).