Snapshot October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Politics · Event KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE-26JAN
As of October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Before Jan 1, 2028 at 16%, followed by Before Jul 1, 2027 at 14%, Before Oct 1, 2027 at 14%. 8.3M contracts have traded, 738 in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Before Jan 1, 2028 ■ Before Jul 1, 2027 ■ Before Oct 1, 2027 · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If a crypto market structure bill has become law before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this Contract, "crypto market structure legislation" means any bill that does all of the following: Establishes a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, cryptocurrencies, or virtual currencies (but not solely for stablecoins); AND Delineates regulatory authority between federal agencies (such as the SEC, CFTC, or others) for oversight of digital assets; AND Creates definitions, classifications, or categories for when digital assets are considered securities, commodities, or other regulatory classifications. The following would NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: Bills that solely regulate stablecoins without addressing broader crypto market structure; Bills that only ban or restrict specific crypto activities without creating a regulatory framework; Bills …”
What are the Kalshi odds for Will the Clarity Act become law?
As of October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Before Jan 1, 2028 at 16%, followed by Before Jul 1, 2027 at 14%, Before Oct 1, 2027 at 14%. 8.3M contracts have traded, 738 in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Will the Clarity Act become law market close?
The listed close dates range from November 1, 2026 to January 1, 2028. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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Will the Clarity Act become law? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 6). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/will-the-clarity-act-become-law/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketswilltheclarityactbecomelaw, title = {Will the Clarity Act become law? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-06 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/will-the-clarity-act-become-law/}}
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