Snapshot September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC · Category: Politics · Event KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31
As of September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC, the leading outcome is Pete Hegseth at 26%, followed by Doug Collins at 24%, Bill Pulte at 22%. 5.6M contracts have traded, 12.0K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h change | Volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth | 26% | +1 pts | 1.2M | 466.7K |
| Doug Collins | 24% | +5 pts | 17.0K | 7.7K |
| Bill Pulte | 22% | +2 pts | 55.8K | 12.2K |
| Susie Wiles | 20% | +3 pts | 215.4K | 71.4K |
| Chris Wright | 19% | +5 pts | 47.8K | 13.6K |
| Kelly Loeffler | 18% | · | 5.1K | 2.4K |
| Steve Witkoff | 18% | -1 pts | 30.5K | 10.1K |
| Peter Navarro | 17% | · | 7.7K | 3.1K |
| Kash Patel | 16% | -7 pts | 1.3M | 398.2K |
| Howard Lutnick | 16% | +2 pts | 407.8K | 98.3K |
| Linda McMahon | 16% | -7 pts | 22.8K | 8.4K |
| Stephen Miller | 16% | -1 pts | 120.4K | 36.4K |
| Tom Homan | 15% | · | 39.4K | 9.9K |
| Doug Burgum | 15% | · | 14.1K | 10.0K |
| Brooke Rollins | 15% | +4 pts | 12.8K | 4.6K |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 15% | -5 pts | 274.0K | 94.7K |
| Lee Zeldin | 15% | -2 pts | 40.9K | 9.7K |
| Mike Huckabee | 14% | +2 pts | 29.3K | 8.8K |
| Rodney Scott | 14% | +6 pts | 3.1K | 1.3K |
| Brendan Carr | 13% | +4 pts | 6.7K | 2.7K |
10 lower-priced outcomes are in the JSON data.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
■ Pete Hegseth ■ Doug Collins ■ Bill Pulte · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If Kash Patel leaves as Director of the FBI before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Kash Patel must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no …”
Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees and the payout calculator.
As of September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC, the leading outcome is Pete Hegseth at 26%, followed by Doug Collins at 24%, Bill Pulte at 22%. 5.6M contracts have traded, 12.0K in the last 24 hours.
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
The listed close dates range from December 31, 2026 to January 1, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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<iframe src="https://kalshiview.com/embed/markets/who-will-leave-their-role-in-the-trump-administration-in-2026/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? Kalshi odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/who-will-leave-their-role-in-the-trump-administration-in-2026/">Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
/api/v1/markets/who-will-leave-their-role-in-the-trump-administration-in-2026.json (CC BY 4.0: credit “Kalshi View” with a link).