Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? Kalshi Odds
Snapshot November 7, 2026 at 16:22 UTC · Category: Politics · Event KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31
As of November 7, 2026 at 16:22 UTC, the leading outcome is Stephen Miller at 96%, followed by Amy Gleason at 70%, Trent McCotter at 70%. 8.3M contracts have traded, 2.7M in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Stephen Miller ■ Amy Gleason ■ Trent McCotter · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If Kash Patel leaves as Director of the FBI before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Kash Patel must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no …”
What are the Kalshi odds for Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?
As of November 7, 2026 at 16:22 UTC, the leading outcome is Stephen Miller at 96%, followed by Amy Gleason at 70%, Trent McCotter at 70%. 8.3M contracts have traded, 2.7M in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026 market close?
The listed close date is January 1, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
Use this data
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<p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/who-will-leave-their-role-in-the-trump-administration-in-2026/">Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
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Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? Kalshi Odds. (2026, November 7). Kalshi View. Retrieved November 7, 2026 at 16:22 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/who-will-leave-their-role-in-the-trump-administration-in-2026/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketswhowillleavetheirroleinthetrumpadministrationin2026, title = {Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Nov}, note = {Snapshot 2026-11-07 16:22 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/who-will-leave-their-role-in-the-trump-administration-in-2026/}}
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