Will the US take control of any part of Greenland? Kalshi Odds
Snapshot October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Politics · Event KXGREENTERRITORY-29
As of October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Before January 21, 2029 at 19%, followed by Before 2027 at 2.9%. 3.5M contracts have traded, 722 in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Before January 21, 2029 ■ Before 2027 · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the United States acquires any part of Greenland before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement by the United States and the entity that controls any part of Greenland that it will happen is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. any part of Greenland must come under formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, where it was not previously. Merely leasing a given part in territory – for example, setting up a military base on leased territory – is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.”
What are the Kalshi odds for Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?
As of October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Before January 21, 2029 at 19%, followed by Before 2027 at 2.9%. 3.5M contracts have traded, 722 in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Will the US take control of any part of Greenland market close?
The listed close dates range from January 1, 2027 to January 21, 2029. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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Will the US take control of any part of Greenland? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 10). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/will-the-us-take-control-of-any-part-of-greenland/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketswilltheustakecontrolofanypartofgreenland, title = {Will the US take control of any part of Greenland? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-10 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/will-the-us-take-control-of-any-part-of-greenland/}}
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