Snapshot September 24, 2026 at 11:56 UTC · Category: Politics · Event KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17
As of September 24, 2026 at 11:56 UTC, the leading outcome is Before Jan 1, 2029 at 72%, followed by Before Jul 1, 2028 at 66%, Before Jan 1, 2028 at 57%. 23.6M contracts have traded, 85.0K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h change | Volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 72% | -5 pts | 28.8K | 17.6K |
| Before Jul 1, 2028 | 66% | -4 pts | 19.7K | 9.1K |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 57% | · | 45.6K | 26.3K |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 42% | +3 pts | 1.6M | 412.6K |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 34% | +3 pts | 800.6K | 264.0K |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 17% | -1 pts | 2.8M | 1.3M |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 11% | +2 pts | 1.0M | 488.0K |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 7.5% | · | 1.4M | 700.1K |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 1.0% | · | 3.2M | 1.2M |
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
■ Before Jan 1, 2029 ■ Before Jul 1, 2028 ■ Before Jan 1, 2028 · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before October 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.”
Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees and the payout calculator.
As of September 24, 2026 at 11:56 UTC, the leading outcome is Before Jan 1, 2029 at 72%, followed by Before Jul 1, 2028 at 66%, Before Jan 1, 2028 at 57%. 23.6M contracts have traded, 85.0K in the last 24 hours.
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
The listed close dates range from October 1, 2026 to January 1, 2029. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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<iframe src="https://kalshiview.com/embed/markets/when-will-traffic-at-the-strait-of-hormuz-return-to-normal/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Kalshi odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/when-will-traffic-at-the-strait-of-hormuz-return-to-normal/">When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
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APA
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Kalshi Odds. (2026, September 24). Kalshi View. Retrieved September 24, 2026 at 11:56 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/when-will-traffic-at-the-strait-of-hormuz-return-to-normal/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketswhenwilltrafficatthestraitofhormuzreturntonormal, title = {When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Sep}, note = {Snapshot 2026-09-24 11:56 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/when-will-traffic-at-the-strait-of-hormuz-return-to-normal/}}HTML credit
<a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/when-will-traffic-at-the-strait-of-hormuz-return-to-normal/">Odds data: Kalshi View</a>
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