When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Kalshi Odds: Before Jan 1, 2029 72%

Snapshot October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Politics · Event KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17

Current odds

Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.

Last 30 days

Outcome	Chance	24h change	Volume	Open interest
Before Jan 1, 2029	72%	+3 pts	37.1K	21.0K
Before Jul 1, 2028	67%	-2 pts	33.3K	20.7K
Before Jan 1, 2028	54%	+2 pts	58.2K	34.0K
Before Jul 1, 2027	48%	·	1.6M	417.6K
Before Apr 1, 2027	32%	-1 pts	821.6K	265.4K
Before Jan 1, 2027	15%	·	3.1M	1.2M
Before Dec 1, 2026	6.5%	·	1.3M	529.0K
Before Nov 1, 2026	2.5%	·	2.1M	1.0M

■ Before Jan 1, 2029 ■ Before Jul 1, 2028 ■ Before Jan 1, 2028 · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data

How this market settles

“If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before November 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.”

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Frequently asked questions

What are the Kalshi odds for When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

As of October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Before Jan 1, 2029 at 72%, followed by Before Jul 1, 2028 at 67%, Before Jan 1, 2028 at 54%. 22.9M contracts have traded, 103.8K in the last 24 hours.

How are these Kalshi odds calculated?

Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.

When does the When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal market close?

The listed close dates range from November 1, 2026 to January 1, 2029. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.

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When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 6). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/when-will-traffic-at-the-strait-of-hormuz-return-to-normal/

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@misc{kalshiview2026marketswhenwilltrafficatthestraitofhormuzreturntonormal, title = {When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-06 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/when-will-traffic-at-the-strait-of-hormuz-return-to-normal/}}

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