Will Trump impose martial law before his term ends? Kalshi Odds: Yes 26% Today

Snapshot September 30, 2026 at 15:25 UTC · Category: Politics · Event KXMARTIAL-29JAN20

Current odds

Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.

Last 30 days

How this market settles

“If martial law has been imposed in the United States before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.”

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Frequently asked questions

Outcome	Chance	24h change	Volume	Open interest
Yes	26%	-6 pts	78.2K	37.1K

What are the Kalshi odds for Will Trump impose martial law before his term ends?

As of September 30, 2026 at 15:25 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes at 26% (26¢ per contract), with 78.2K contracts traded in total and 17.8K in the last 24 hours.

How are these Kalshi odds calculated?

Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.

When does the Will Trump impose martial law before his term ends market close?

The listed close date is January 20, 2029. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.

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Will Trump impose martial law before his term ends? Kalshi Odds. (2026, September 30). Kalshi View. Retrieved September 30, 2026 at 15:25 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/will-trump-impose-martial-law-before-his-term-ends/

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@misc{kalshiview2026marketswilltrumpimposemartiallawbeforehistermends, title = {Will Trump impose martial law before his term ends? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Sep}, note = {Snapshot 2026-09-30 15:25 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/will-trump-impose-martial-law-before-his-term-ends/}}

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