Will Trump impose martial law before his term ends? Kalshi Odds: Before Jan 1, 2028 58%

Snapshot October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Politics · Event KXMARTIAL-29JAN20

Current odds

Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.

Last 30 days

Outcome	Chance	24h change	Volume	Open interest
Before Jan 1, 2028	58%	·	0	0
Before Jan 20, 2029	37%	+6 pts	83.5K	39.4K

■ Before Jan 20, 2029 · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data

How this market settles

“If martial law has been imposed in the United States before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.”

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Frequently asked questions

What are the Kalshi odds for Will Trump impose martial law before his term ends?

As of October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Before Jan 1, 2028 at 58%, followed by Before Jan 20, 2029 at 37%. 83.5K contracts have traded, 264 in the last 24 hours.

How are these Kalshi odds calculated?

Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.

When does the Will Trump impose martial law before his term ends market close?

The listed close dates range from January 1, 2028 to January 20, 2029. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.

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Will Trump impose martial law before his term ends? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 8). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/will-trump-impose-martial-law-before-his-term-ends/

BibTeX

@misc{kalshiview2026marketswilltrumpimposemartiallawbeforehistermends, title = {Will Trump impose martial law before his term ends? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-08 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/will-trump-impose-martial-law-before-his-term-ends/}}

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