Snapshot September 24, 2026 at 11:56 UTC · Category: Politics · Event KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
As of September 24, 2026 at 11:56 UTC, the leading outcome is Before Jan 20, 2029 at 37%, followed by Before Jan 1, 2028 at 32%, Before Mar 1, 2027 at 13%. 8.8M contracts have traded, 21.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h change | Volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 37% | -2 pts | 125.4K | 34.2K |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 32% | -6 pts | 107.4K | 38.1K |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 13% | -2 pts | 59.0K | 30.3K |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 10% | · | 1.7M | 477.4K |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 9.5% | -5 pts | 16.4K | 10.2K |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 8.0% | +2 pts | 249.7K | 148.9K |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 3.5% | +1 pts | 545.8K | 379.7K |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 1.0% | · | 975.0K | 589.6K |
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
■ Before Jan 20, 2029 ■ Before Jan 1, 2028 ■ Before Mar 1, 2027 · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. An agreement also made with other countries (i.e. multilaterally) is still encompassed if the United States participates. "A new Iran-US nuclear deal" means a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran that (1) imposes verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, including limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations, AND (2) provides for the lifting, suspension, or modification of at least one US economic sanction on Iran in exchange for Iran's nuclear commitments. Clarification (04/19/26): The Agreement Long rulebook variable defines the nature of the qualifying instrument: it must be a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both …”
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As of September 24, 2026 at 11:56 UTC, the leading outcome is Before Jan 20, 2029 at 37%, followed by Before Jan 1, 2028 at 32%, Before Mar 1, 2027 at 13%. 8.8M contracts have traded, 21.3K in the last 24 hours.
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
The listed close dates range from October 1, 2026 to January 20, 2029. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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<iframe src="https://kalshiview.com/embed/markets/us-iran-nuclear-deal/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="US-Iran nuclear deal? Kalshi odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/us-iran-nuclear-deal/">US-Iran nuclear deal? odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
/api/v1/markets/us-iran-nuclear-deal.json (CC BY 4.0: credit “Kalshi View” with a link).
APA
US-Iran nuclear deal? Kalshi Odds. (2026, September 24). Kalshi View. Retrieved September 24, 2026 at 11:56 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/us-iran-nuclear-deal/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketsusirannucleardeal, title = {US-Iran nuclear deal? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Sep}, note = {Snapshot 2026-09-24 11:56 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/us-iran-nuclear-deal/}}HTML credit
<a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/us-iran-nuclear-deal/">Odds data: Kalshi View</a>
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