Snapshot October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Politics · Event KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
As of October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Before Jan 20, 2029 at 38%, followed by Before Jan 1, 2028 at 34%, Before Mar 1, 2027 at 17%. 9.3M contracts have traded, 10.5K in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Before Jan 20, 2029 ■ Before Jan 1, 2028 ■ Before Mar 1, 2027 · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. An agreement also made with other countries (i.e. multilaterally) is still encompassed if the United States participates. "A new Iran-US nuclear deal" means a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran that (1) imposes verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, including limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations, AND (2) provides for the lifting, suspension, or modification of at least one US economic sanction on Iran in exchange for Iran's nuclear commitments. Clarification (04/19/26): The Agreement Long rulebook variable defines the nature of the qualifying instrument: it must be a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both …”
What are the Kalshi odds for US-Iran nuclear deal?
As of October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Before Jan 20, 2029 at 38%, followed by Before Jan 1, 2028 at 34%, Before Mar 1, 2027 at 17%. 9.3M contracts have traded, 10.5K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the US-Iran nuclear deal market close?
The listed close dates range from November 1, 2026 to January 20, 2029. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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US-Iran nuclear deal? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 6). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/us-iran-nuclear-deal/
Daily Kalshi market checks, results and settlement coverage are posted in the @Kalshi_market channel on Telegram. It is a coverage feed, not a per-market alert service.
