| Event | Leading outcome | 24h volume | Closes |
|---|
| Next Gemini Pro model release | Before Nov 16, 2026 94% | 4.6K | December 1, 2026 |
| When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin? | before April 2027 86% | 2.5K | April 1, 2027 |
| Who will be in the US News top 20 universities? | WashU 98% | 2.4K | January 1, 2028 |
| How many gonorrhea cases will be reported in the United States in 2026? | Above 300k 98% | 1.1K | January 1, 2027 |
| When will the FDA approve Compass Pathways' COMP360 Psilocybin? | Before 2028 88% | 738 | January 1, 2028 |
| Which states will robotaxi be offered to in 2026? | Nevada 74% | 509 | January 31, 2027 |
| When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem? | Before 2028 90% | 370 | January 1, 2028 |
| Where will Waymo operate in 2026? | San Diego, CA 90% | 320 | December 31, 2026 |
| When will Anthropic release Claude 6? | Before Dec 31, 2027 86% | 210 | December 31, 2027 |
| How many tuberculosis cases will be reported in the United States in 2026? | Above 7k 92% | 167 | January 1, 2027 |
| When will SpaceX launch Dragon Crew-13 | Before Jan 1, 2027 98% | 100 | January 1, 2027 |
| Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030? | Yes 24% | 74 | January 1, 2030 |
| When will Virgin Galactic launch their next commercial Delta-class SpaceShip | Before 2028 86% | 50 | January 1, 2028 |
| Will two SpaceX Starships dock together before 2028? | Yes 49% | 35 | January 1, 2028 |
| When will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved? | Before 2032 80% | 19 | January 7, 2032 |
| Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does? | Yes 48% | 15 | January 1, 2035 |
| How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026? | Above 0 24% | 13 | January 1, 2027 |
| Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? | United States 52% | 12 | January 1, 2031 |
| How many human H5N1 cases will be reported in the United States in 2026? | Above 0 34% | 11 | January 1, 2027 |
| When will Beam Therapeutics submit a BLA for Risto-cel? | before April 2027 76% | 5 | April 1, 2027 |
| Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026? | Above 14k 100% | 5 | January 1, 2027 |
| Will humans colonize Mars before 2050? | Yes 24% | 5 | January 1, 2050 |
| How many mpox clade Ib cases will be reported in the United States in 2026? | Above 10 82% | 5 | January 1, 2027 |
| Will the FDA approve MDMA for PTSD? | Before Jan 1, 2032 55% | 3 | January 1, 2032 |
| Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX? | Yes 64% | 0 | January 1, 2030 |
| New York Times wins OpenAI lawsuit? | Yes 61% | 0 | January 1, 2028 |
| When will nuclear fusion be achieved? | Before 2040 52% | 0 | January 1, 2040 |
| When will SpaceX launch Dragon CRS-35? | Before Nov 1, 2026 70% | 0 | November 1, 2026 |
| Highest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2027? | At least 60% 90% | 0 | December 31, 2027 |
| Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail? | Yes 30% | 0 | January 1, 2050 |
| Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030? | Yes 50% | 0 | January 1, 2030 |
| Will OpenAI pay a tort claim with more than $1 million in damages before 2028? | Yes 54% | 0 | January 1, 2028 |
| When will the FDA approve Intellia Therapeutics' lonvo-z? | Before October 2027 90% | 0 | January 1, 2028 |
| How many launches will Rocket Lab have before 2027? | Above 5 96% | 0 | January 8, 2027 |
| Will the FDA approve VERVE-102? | Before 2035 84% | 0 | January 1, 2035 |
| Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)? | Before Jan 1, 2028 95% | 0 | January 1, 2028 |
| Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next? | Hodge Conjecture 62% | 0 | January 1, 2045 |
| When will Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer be resolved? | Before 2032 72% | 0 | January 7, 2032 |
| Next LandSpace Zhuque-3 launch | Before Jan 1, 2028 96% | 0 | January 1, 2028 |
| When will P vs NP be resolved? | Before 2040 36% | 0 | January 7, 2040 |
| When will Blue Origin launch New Shepard? | Before 2029 40% | 0 | January 1, 2029 |
| When will Yang–Mills and the Mass Gap be resolved? | Before 2032 50% | 0 | January 7, 2032 |
| When will the Riemann Hypothesis be resolved? | Before 2040 67% | 0 | January 7, 2040 |
| When will all Millennium Prize Problems be solved? | Before 2040 38% | 0 | January 7, 2040 |
| Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess? | Before 2030 52% | 0 | January 1, 2030 |
| When will OpenAI release GPT-7? | Before 2028 83% | 0 | January 1, 2028 |