Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? Kalshi Odds
Snapshot October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Politics · Event KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01
As of October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is John Brennan at 28%, followed by Anthony Fauci at 26%, Leon Black at 17%. 1.7M contracts have traded, 24.3K in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ John Brennan ■ Anthony Fauci ■ Leon Black · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If Letitia James has been formally charged with a federal crime after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Charges filed in military courts are included. The reinstatement of charges filed prior to Issuance does not count; only the filing of a new charging document after Issuance triggers the Payout Criterion. Formal charges require the filing of a criminal complaint, information, or indictment with an appropriate court. Arrests without charges, being named as a target of investigation, civil lawsuits, and administrative actions do not constitute charges. Traffic violations that don't require court appearances and sealed charges that remain sealed through the deadline also don't count. If charges are filed and then dismissed before the deadline, the market still resolves to Yes. Pre-trial diversion agreements involving formal charges count as charges. For …”
What are the Kalshi odds for Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
As of October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is John Brennan at 28%, followed by Anthony Fauci at 26%, Leon Black at 17%. 1.7M contracts have traded, 24.3K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026 market close?
The listed close date is January 1, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 6). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/who-will-be-charged-with-a-federal-crime-in-2026/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketswhowillbechargedwithafederalcrimein2026, title = {Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-06 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/who-will-be-charged-with-a-federal-crime-in-2026/}}
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