Snapshot October 4, 2026 at 11:20 UTC · Category: Science and Technology · Event KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-15
As of October 4, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Before Dec 11, 2026 at 94%, followed by Before Nov 27, 2026 at 88%, Before Nov 13, 2026 at 66%. 54.2K contracts have traded, 12.7K in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Before Dec 11, 2026 ■ Before Nov 27, 2026 ■ Before Nov 13, 2026 · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 15 After issuance and before Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. For the purpose of this market, the launch date is the calendar date on which liftoff occurred, measured in the local timezone of the launch site, as publicly confirmed by SpaceX”
What are the Kalshi odds for SpaceX Starship 15th launch?
As of October 4, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Before Dec 11, 2026 at 94%, followed by Before Nov 27, 2026 at 88%, Before Nov 13, 2026 at 66%. 54.2K contracts have traded, 12.7K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the SpaceX Starship 15th launch market close?
The listed close dates range from October 16, 2026 to December 11, 2026. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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SpaceX Starship 15th launch? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 4). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 4, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/spacex-starship-15th-launch/
Daily Kalshi market checks, results and settlement coverage are posted in the @Kalshi_market channel on Telegram. It is a coverage feed, not a per-market alert service.
