Kalshi odds today › Arbitrage check
Snapshot November 7, 2026 at 16:22 UTC · open events where only one outcome can win · refreshed twice a day
As of November 7, 2026 at 16:22 UTC, 1809 open Kalshi events where only one outcome can win had an offer on every outcome. In the 1672 whose asks add up to $1 or more, buying one Yes of every outcome cost a median of $1.44 for a $1 payout: the extra is the spreads, not a fee set by Kalshi. 111 add up to less than $1, which usually means an unlisted outcome can still win, so it is not free money. In 26 the bids add up to more than $1, the one case that is arbitrage before fees; none of them still pays after the taker fee.
| Event | Outcomes | Buy every Yes (sum of asks) | Sum of chances | Sell every Yes (sum of bids) | Check |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World Wide Technology Championship Winner | 113 | $1.15 | 110% | $0.96 | above $1: the spreads |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee | 57 | $1.07 | 103% | $0.97 | above $1: the spreads |
| 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? | 51 | $1.14 | 108% | $1.02 | bids above $1, gone after fees |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee | 50 | $1.10 | 106% | $1.01 | bids above $1, gone after fees |
| How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? | 10 | $1.02 | 101% | $1.00 | above $1: the spreads |
| Abu Dhabi Aldar Championship Winner | 70 | $1.09 | 107% | $0.97 | above $1: the spreads |
| 2027 Pro Football Champion | 32 | $1.21 | 112% | $0.89 | above $1: the spreads |
| College Football National Championship Winner | 53 | $1.41 | 135% | $0.86 | above $1: the spreads |
| Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion | 73 | $1.14 | 109% | $1.00 | bids above $1, gone after fees |
| Alaska Senate winner? (Person) | 7 | $1.03 | 102% | $0.99 | above $1: the spreads |
| 2027 Pro Basketball Champion | 30 | $1.23 | 114% | $0.93 | above $1: the spreads |
| Fed decision in Dec 2026? | 5 | $1.06 | 104% | $1.00 | above $1: the spreads |
| Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary? | 63 | $1.14 | 112% | $0.43 | above $1: the spreads |
| NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Winner | 40 | $1.33 | 122% | $0.93 | above $1: the spreads |
| Jonathan Taylor Next Team | 33 | $1.34 | 127% | $0.97 | above $1: the spreads |
| Heisman Trophy Winner | 50 | $1.50 | 144% | $0.96 | above $1: the spreads |
| 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) | 10 | $1.01 | 99% | $0.96 | above $1: the spreads |
| How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes) | 7 | $1.03 | 102% | $1.00 | bids above $1, gone after fees |
| How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? | 12 | $1.01 | 100% | $0.99 | above $1: the spreads |
| Worlds 2026 Champion | 4 | $1.05 | 103% | $1.01 | bids above $1, gone after fees |
| Next Senate Democratic Leader? | 13 | $1.03 | 103% | $1.00 | bids above $1, gone after fees |
| MVP Winner? | 49 | $1.44 | 138% | $0.95 | above $1: the spreads |
| NFC East Division Winner | 4 | $1.02 | 100% | $0.98 | above $1: the spreads |
| Brazil Grand Prix Main Race Winner | 22 | $1.16 | 102% | $0.93 | above $1: the spreads |
| Who will be the next Speaker of the House? | 8 | $1.10 | 106% | $1.00 | bids above $1, gone after fees |
| Oscar Winner: Best Picture | 41 | $1.40 | 137% | $0.99 | above $1: the spreads |
| Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election? | 21 | $1.14 | 111% | $0.93 | above $1: the spreads |
| Pro Football Championship Game Matchup | 256 | $3.16 | 231% | $0.57 | above $1: the spreads |
| Pro Basketball MVP Winner | 54 | $1.52 | 147% | $0.97 | above $1: the spreads |
| How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? | 15 | $1.12 | 111% | $0.97 | above $1: the spreads |
| Bitcoin price at the end of 2026 | 28 | $1.07 | 103% | $0.99 | above $1: the spreads |
| Pro Basketball Western Conference Champion | 15 | $1.09 | 104% | $0.94 | above $1: the spreads |
| Aaron Rodgers's Next Team | 33 | $1.32 | 130% | $0.99 | above $1: the spreads |
| NFC Championship Winner | 16 | $1.08 | 102% | $0.92 | above $1: the spreads |
| Coach of the Year Winner? | 33 | $1.29 | 122% | $0.96 | above $1: the spreads |
| Brazil Grand Prix Qualifying Session: Pole Position | 22 | $1.28 | 108% | $0.93 | above $1: the spreads |
| Highest temperature in New York City on Nov 7, 2026? | 6 | $1.06 | 103% | $0.97 | above $1: the spreads |
| O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Championship Winner | 39 | $1.38 | 114% | $0.97 | above $1: the spreads |
| Best AI at the end of 2026? | 8 | $1.03 | 102% | $0.99 | above $1: the spreads |
| NASCAR Cup Series Champion | 35 | $1.34 | 134% | $0.99 | above $1: the spreads |
| 120th Congress: Who will be Senate Majority Leader? | 6 | $1.07 | 108% | $1.01 | bids above $1, gone after fees |
| Offensive Player of the Year Winner? | 69 | $1.63 | 158% | $0.94 | above $1: the spreads |
| AFC Championship Winner | 16 | $1.09 | 103% | $0.92 | above $1: the spreads |
| 2026 Pro Basketball Cup Champion | 30 | $1.28 | 114% | $0.83 | above $1: the spreads |
| Pro Basketball Rookie of the Year Winner | 18 | $1.19 | 115% | $1.00 | above $1: the spreads |
| 2028 Democratic VP nominee | 51 | $1.18 | 105% | $0.92 | above $1: the spreads |
| Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Nov 7, 2026? | 6 | $1.04 | 102% | $0.97 | above $1: the spreads |
| 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Final Winner | 32 | $1.26 | 116% | $0.94 | above $1: the spreads |
| Worlds 2026 Winning Region | 3 | $1.03 | 102% | $1.00 | above $1: the spreads |
| Trump's RCP approval average on Nov 7, 2026? | 9 | $1.14 | 109% | $0.98 | above $1: the spreads |
| TOTO Japan Classic Winner | 76 | $1.44 | 193% | $0.85 | above $1: the spreads |
| BTC price range on Nov 13, 2026 at 5pm EST? | 50 | $1.77 | 101% | $0.67 | above $1: the spreads |
| 2027 The Masters Champion | 52 | $1.10 | 95% | $0.80 | above $1: the spreads |
| Number of rate cuts in 2026? | 21 | $1.06 | 106% | $0.99 | above $1: the spreads |
| Monster Energy Launch Invitational Champion | 16 | $1.18 | 105% | $0.87 | above $1: the spreads |
| Dancing with the Stars Season 35 · Winner | 7 | $1.04 | 101% | $0.97 | above $1: the spreads |
| S&P close price end of 2026? | 27 | $1.14 | 106% | $0.82 | above $1: the spreads |
| Offensive Rookie of the Year Winner? | 40 | $1.33 | 124% | $0.89 | above $1: the spreads |
| Highest temperature in Miami on Nov 7, 2026? | 6 | $1.07 | 105% | $0.99 | above $1: the spreads |
| Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026? | 30 | $1.02 | 91% | $0.69 | above $1: the spreads |
Buy every Yes: the best Yes ask of every outcome added up, what one contract of each costs; it pays $1 only if one listed outcome wins. Sell every Yes: the best Yes bids added up; buying No on every outcome costs the count minus this sum and pays at least the count minus one, since at most one outcome wins. Sum of chances: the chances shown on Kalshi View (midpoint, or last trade when the spread is wide). Fees are the taker fee for 100 contracts a leg. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Every outcome of an event is its own market with its own order book, so the prices of all outcomes need not add up to exactly $1. Kalshi marks an event as mutually exclusive when at most one of its outcomes can resolve Yes. For those events, a sum of asks above $1 is the cost of crossing every spread; a sum below $1 means traders price in results the list does not name. The one gap that pays whatever happens is a sum of bids above $1, and the fee on every leg usually closes it. Prices move and books are thin on long-shot outcomes, so check the live order book on Kalshi before trading.
Related: arbitrage on Kalshi · bid and ask · fee calculator · order book · Kalshi vs Polymarket odds · all live Kalshi odds
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Rarely, and it is usually gone after fees. Inside one market there is nothing to exploit, because buying Yes and selling No are the same trade. Across the outcomes of an event where only one can win, the checkable case is bids that add up to more than $1: buying No on every outcome then pays at least the number of outcomes minus one. This page checks every such event twice a day.
Kalshi does not set the odds; traders do, and Kalshi charges a trading fee. Buying one Yes of every outcome still costs more than $1 because each outcome is bought at its ask, above the midpoint; long lists of unlikely outcomes, each offered at a cent or more, add the most.
Mutually exclusive means at most one outcome wins, not that one listed outcome must win. When the list leaves out possible results (another candidate, no winner by the deadline), every Yes can lose, so a total below $1 is the price of that gap.
The taker fee for 100 contracts on each leg, 0.07 x contracts x price x (1 - price) rounded up to the cent, as in the fee calculator. Buying No at 1 minus the Yes bid costs the same fee as selling Yes at the bid.