Kalshi odds today › Arbitrage check
Snapshot September 25, 2026 at 22:04 UTC · open events where only one outcome can win · refreshed twice a day
As of September 25, 2026 at 22:04 UTC, 1510 open Kalshi events where only one outcome can win had an offer on every outcome. In the 1369 whose asks add up to $1 or more, buying one Yes of every outcome cost a median of $1.37 for a $1 payout: the extra is the spreads, not a fee set by Kalshi. 89 add up to less than $1, which usually means an unlisted outcome can still win, so it is not free money. In 52 the bids add up to more than $1, the one case that is arbitrage before fees; none of them still pays after the taker fee.
| Event | Outcomes | Buy every Yes (sum of asks) | Sum of chances | Sell every Yes (sum of bids) | Check |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 Pro Football Champion | 32 | $1.19 | 110% | $0.87 | above $1: the spreads |
| FedEx Open de France Winner | 142 | $1.16 | 111% | $0.96 | above $1: the spreads |
| Pro Baseball Champion | 14 | $1.03 | 102% | $1.01 | bids above $1, gone after fees |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee | 48 | $1.01 | 97% | $0.90 | above $1: the spreads |
| English Premier League Champion | 20 | $1.15 | 112% | $0.95 | above $1: the spreads |
| 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? | 4 | $1.00 | 98% | $0.97 | below $1: list may be incomplete |
| Azerbaijan Grand Prix Winner | 22 | $1.19 | 113% | $0.97 | above $1: the spreads |
| Women's Pro Basketball Champion | 8 | $1.06 | 102% | $0.98 | above $1: the spreads |
| NFC Championship Winner | 16 | $1.06 | 99% | $0.90 | above $1: the spreads |
| College Football National Championship Winner | 51 | $1.41 | 132% | $0.88 | above $1: the spreads |
| Fed decision in Oct 2026? | 5 | $1.05 | 103% | $1.00 | above $1: the spreads |
| Presidents Cup Winner | 3 | $1.04 | 101% | $0.99 | above $1: the spreads |
| MVP Winner? | 47 | $1.32 | 125% | $0.84 | above $1: the spreads |
| 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? | 31 | $0.97 | 93% | $0.85 | below $1: list may be incomplete |
| Big Brother Season 28 · Winner | 3 | $1.02 | 100% | $0.97 | above $1: the spreads |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee | 39 | $0.99 | 96% | $0.88 | below $1: list may be incomplete |
| Heisman Trophy Winner | 40 | $1.27 | 118% | $0.83 | above $1: the spreads |
| Walmart NW Arkansas Championship presented by P&G Winner | 146 | $2.76 | 242% | $0.41 | above $1: the spreads |
| Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026? | 20 | $1.11 | 103% | $0.83 | above $1: the spreads |
| WTA Singapore Singles Winner | 3 | $1.09 | 105% | $1.01 | bids above $1, gone after fees |
| Dancing with the Stars Season 35 · Winner | 13 | $1.05 | 100% | $0.92 | above $1: the spreads |
| Trump's RCP approval average on Sep 26, 2026? | 9 | $1.13 | 108% | $1.02 | bids above $1, gone after fees |
| NL Rookie of the Year Winner? | 30 | $1.28 | 128% | $0.98 | above $1: the spreads |
| Bitcoin price at the end of 2026 | 28 | $1.00 | 98% | $0.96 | above $1: the spreads |
| Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026? | 17 | $1.17 | 112% | $0.99 | above $1: the spreads |
| National League Champion | 7 | $1.07 | 104% | $1.00 | above $1: the spreads |
| Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion | 73 | $1.07 | 99% | $0.90 | above $1: the spreads |
| 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals Winner | 32 | $1.21 | 110% | $0.89 | above $1: the spreads |
| Hollywood Casino 400 Winner | 36 | $1.39 | 124% | $1.03 | bids above $1, gone after fees |
| Offensive Player of the Year Winner? | 65 | $1.53 | 138% | $0.84 | above $1: the spreads |
| AFC Championship Winner | 16 | $1.06 | 100% | $0.89 | above $1: the spreads |
| Presidents Cup: Overall Points Leader | 24 | $1.35 | 120% | $0.44 | above $1: the spreads |
| Pro Baseball Championship Series Matchup | 49 | $1.21 | 102% | $0.80 | above $1: the spreads |
| Aaron Rodgers's Next Team | 33 | $1.31 | 130% | $0.98 | above $1: the spreads |
| Presidents Cup: Team USA Points Leader | 12 | $1.09 | 122% | $0.36 | above $1: the spreads |
| Coach of the Year Winner? | 33 | $1.26 | 114% | $0.89 | above $1: the spreads |
| Offensive Rookie of the Year Winner? | 37 | $1.14 | 106% | $0.75 | above $1: the spreads |
| Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary? | 52 | $1.27 | 109% | $0.67 | above $1: the spreads |
| Best AI at the end of 2026? | 8 | $0.99 | 99% | $0.98 | below $1: list may be incomplete |
| Nebraska Senate winner? | 3 | $1.03 | 102% | $1.01 | bids above $1, gone after fees |
| Presidents Cup: Team International Points Leader | 12 | $1.08 | 118% | $0.50 | above $1: the spreads |
| Women's Pro Basketball MVP Winner | 24 | $1.24 | 123% | $0.99 | above $1: the spreads |
| S&P close price end of 2026? | 27 | $1.12 | 104% | $0.83 | above $1: the spreads |
| Pro Football Best Regular Season Record | 32 | $1.18 | 112% | $0.84 | above $1: the spreads |
| Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? | 16 | $1.16 | 109% | $0.97 | above $1: the spreads |
| Pro Football Championship Game Matchup | 256 | $3.02 | 186% | $0.37 | above $1: the spreads |
| Big Brother Season 28 · 2nd place | 3 | $1.05 | 103% | $1.01 | bids above $1, gone after fees |
| 2027 Pro Basketball Champion | 30 | $1.15 | 107% | $0.85 | above $1: the spreads |
| Taylor Swift Top 10 Spots — Billboard Hot 100 (Oct 10, 2026) | 11 | $1.20 | 112% | $1.00 | above $1: the spreads |
| Oscar Winner: Best Picture | 41 | $1.32 | 127% | $0.90 | above $1: the spreads |
| Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 25, 2026? | 6 | $1.15 | 105% | $0.86 | above $1: the spreads |
| American League Champion | 7 | $1.08 | 103% | $0.98 | above $1: the spreads |
| Midterms: which issue matters most to voters? | 7 | $1.09 | 104% | $0.99 | above $1: the spreads |
| Oscar Winner: Best Actor | 24 | $1.28 | 125% | $1.04 | bids above $1, gone after fees |
| Highest temperature in Boston on Sep 25, 2026? | 6 | $1.06 | 104% | $0.98 | above $1: the spreads |
| Race to Stop Suicide 200 Winner | 36 | $1.41 | 125% | $1.03 | bids above $1, gone after fees |
| AL MVP Winner? | 49 | $1.48 | 146% | $0.99 | above $1: the spreads |
| MTV Video Music Awards: Best Group | 9 | $1.13 | 109% | $0.54 | above $1: the spreads |
| Big Brother Season 28 · 3rd place | 3 | $1.00 | 98% | $0.96 | above $1: the spreads |
| Highest temperature in Minneapolis on Sep 25, 2026? | 6 | $1.11 | 101% | $0.94 | above $1: the spreads |
Buy every Yes: the best Yes ask of every outcome added up, what one contract of each costs; it pays $1 only if one listed outcome wins. Sell every Yes: the best Yes bids added up; buying No on every outcome costs the count minus this sum and pays at least the count minus one, since at most one outcome wins. Sum of chances: the chances shown on Kalshi View (midpoint, or last trade when the spread is wide). Fees are the taker fee for 100 contracts a leg. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Every outcome of an event is its own market with its own order book, so the prices of all outcomes need not add up to exactly $1. Kalshi marks an event as mutually exclusive when at most one of its outcomes can resolve Yes. For those events, a sum of asks above $1 is the cost of crossing every spread; a sum below $1 means traders price in results the list does not name. The one gap that pays whatever happens is a sum of bids above $1, and the fee on every leg usually closes it. Prices move and books are thin on long-shot outcomes, so check the live order book on Kalshi before trading.
Related: arbitrage on Kalshi · bid and ask · fee calculator · order book · Kalshi vs Polymarket odds · all live Kalshi odds
Free JSON with every checked event: /api/v1/markets/arbitrage-check.json (CC BY 4.0: credit “Kalshi View” with a link).
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Rarely, and it is usually gone after fees. Inside one market there is nothing to exploit, because buying Yes and selling No are the same trade. Across the outcomes of an event where only one can win, the checkable case is bids that add up to more than $1: buying No on every outcome then pays at least the number of outcomes minus one. This page checks every such event twice a day.
Kalshi does not set the odds; traders do, and Kalshi charges a trading fee. Buying one Yes of every outcome still costs more than $1 because each outcome is bought at its ask, above the midpoint; long lists of unlikely outcomes, each offered at a cent or more, add the most.
Mutually exclusive means at most one outcome wins, not that one listed outcome must win. When the list leaves out possible results (another candidate, no winner by the deadline), every Yes can lose, so a total below $1 is the price of that gap.
The taker fee for 100 contracts on each leg, 0.07 x contracts x price x (1 - price) rounded up to the cent, as in the fee calculator. Buying No at 1 minus the Yes bid costs the same fee as selling Yes at the bid.