Kalshi odds today › Arbitrage check
Snapshot October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · open events where only one outcome can win · refreshed twice a day
As of October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, 1484 open Kalshi events where only one outcome can win had an offer on every outcome. In the 1383 whose asks add up to $1 or more, buying one Yes of every outcome cost a median of $1.36 for a $1 payout: the extra is the spreads, not a fee set by Kalshi. 65 add up to less than $1, which usually means an unlisted outcome can still win, so it is not free money. In 36 the bids add up to more than $1, the one case that is arbitrage before fees; none of them still pays after the taker fee.
| Event | Outcomes | Buy every Yes (sum of asks) | Sum of chances | Sell every Yes (sum of bids) | Check |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 Pro Football Champion | 32 | $1.16 | 106% | $0.84 | above $1: the spreads |
| MVP Winner? | 49 | $1.29 | 121% | $0.79 | above $1: the spreads |
| Baycurrent Classic Winner | 72 | $1.12 | 108% | $1.03 | bids above $1, gone after fees |
| Pro Baseball Champion | 8 | $1.05 | 104% | $1.03 | bids above $1, gone after fees |
| 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? | 4 | $1.04 | 103% | $1.01 | bids above $1, gone after fees |
| Open de España presented by Madrid Winner | 128 | $1.10 | 98% | $0.81 | above $1: the spreads |
| 2027 Pro Basketball Champion | 30 | $1.22 | 114% | $0.91 | above $1: the spreads |
| NFC Championship Winner | 16 | $1.06 | 100% | $0.90 | above $1: the spreads |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee | 48 | $1.01 | 97% | $0.88 | above $1: the spreads |
| College Football National Championship Winner | 51 | $1.47 | 140% | $0.94 | above $1: the spreads |
| Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026? | 17 | $1.17 | 114% | $1.00 | above $1: the spreads |
| Bitcoin price at the end of 2026 | 28 | $1.00 | 99% | $0.97 | above $1: the spreads |
| Baycurrent Classic End of Round 1 Leader | 72 | $1.25 | 87% | $0.45 | above $1: the spreads |
| 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? | 31 | $0.99 | 95% | $0.86 | below $1: list may be incomplete |
| Fed decision in Oct 2026? | 5 | $1.04 | 103% | $0.99 | above $1: the spreads |
| Nebraska Senate winner? | 3 | $1.01 | 101% | $0.99 | above $1: the spreads |
| Offensive Player of the Year Winner? | 65 | $1.64 | 154% | $0.97 | above $1: the spreads |
| Heisman Trophy Winner | 46 | $1.40 | 133% | $0.93 | above $1: the spreads |
| American League Champion | 4 | $1.02 | 100% | $0.98 | above $1: the spreads |
| Pro Baseball Championship Series MVP Winner | 67 | $0.97 | 81% | $0.66 | below $1: list may be incomplete |
| Pro Baseball Championship Series Matchup | 16 | $1.10 | 98% | $0.86 | above $1: the spreads |
| Tyreek Hill's Next Team | 32 | $1.26 | 127% | $0.91 | above $1: the spreads |
| AFC North Division Winner | 4 | $1.04 | 102% | $1.00 | above $1: the spreads |
| Oscar Winner: Best Picture | 41 | $1.36 | 132% | $0.94 | above $1: the spreads |
| Coach of the Year Winner? | 33 | $1.24 | 112% | $0.85 | above $1: the spreads |
| Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 7, 2026? | 9 | $1.10 | 104% | $0.99 | above $1: the spreads |
| National League Champion | 4 | $1.04 | 101% | $0.97 | above $1: the spreads |
| NFC South Division Winner | 4 | $0.96 | 94% | $0.91 | below $1: list may be incomplete |
| How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? | 10 | $1.05 | 102% | $0.99 | above $1: the spreads |
| Aaron Rodgers's Next Team | 33 | $1.33 | 131% | $1.00 | above $1: the spreads |
| College Football Big 12 Championship Winner | 16 | $1.12 | 105% | $0.92 | above $1: the spreads |
| NFC North Division Winner | 4 | $1.03 | 101% | $0.99 | above $1: the spreads |
| Pro Football Championship Game Matchup | 256 | $3.11 | 200% | $0.51 | above $1: the spreads |
| Fed decision in Dec 2026? | 5 | $1.06 | 103% | $1.00 | above $1: the spreads |
| AFC Championship Winner | 16 | $1.05 | 98% | $0.88 | above $1: the spreads |
| Bank of America 400 Winner | 39 | $1.43 | 134% | $0.98 | above $1: the spreads |
| Dancing with the Stars Season 35 · Winner | 12 | $1.12 | 106% | $0.97 | above $1: the spreads |
| Women's Pro Basketball Champion | 4 | $1.02 | 100% | $0.98 | above $1: the spreads |
| Best AI at the end of 2026? | 8 | $1.04 | 102% | $0.99 | above $1: the spreads |
| NFC East Division Winner | 4 | $1.00 | 98% | $0.95 | above $1: the spreads |
| Highest temperature in Phoenix on Oct 6, 2026? | 6 | $1.07 | 104% | $0.98 | above $1: the spreads |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee | 39 | $0.96 | 92% | $0.83 | below $1: list may be incomplete |
| 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals Winner | 32 | $1.27 | 115% | $0.94 | above $1: the spreads |
| Pro Football Last Undefeated Team | 3 | $1.02 | 101% | $0.99 | above $1: the spreads |
| Defensive Rookie of the Year Winner? | 29 | $1.34 | 127% | $1.02 | bids above $1, gone after fees |
| Michigan Senate winner? (Person) | 4 | $1.04 | 103% | $1.00 | above $1: the spreads |
| Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion | 73 | $1.12 | 103% | $0.91 | above $1: the spreads |
| Pro Basketball Western Conference Champion | 15 | $1.08 | 103% | $0.93 | above $1: the spreads |
| Offensive Rookie of the Year Winner? | 38 | $1.28 | 120% | $0.87 | above $1: the spreads |
| 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) | 10 | $1.12 | 108% | $1.05 | bids above $1, gone after fees |
| League of Legends Worlds Champion | 19 | $1.20 | 140% | $1.01 | bids above $1, gone after fees |
| Maine-Texas Senate Combo | 6 | $1.09 | 106% | $1.02 | bids above $1, gone after fees |
| S&P close price end of 2026? | 27 | $1.20 | 112% | $0.91 | above $1: the spreads |
| ALCS MVP Winner | 32 | $0.80 | 62% | $0.44 | below $1: list may be incomplete |
| Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary? | 54 | $1.16 | 110% | $0.65 | above $1: the spreads |
| Highest temperature in San Francisco on Oct 6, 2026? | 6 | $1.07 | 104% | $0.99 | above $1: the spreads |
| Closest Senate race in 2026? | 20 | $1.11 | 103% | $0.93 | above $1: the spreads |
| Critics Choice Awards: Best Original Screenplay | 16 | $1.30 | 116% | $1.03 | bids above $1, gone after fees |
| Odell Beckham Jr. Next Team | 33 | $2.00 | 114% | $0.59 | above $1: the spreads |
| Best AI this week | 9 | $1.13 | 108% | $0.95 | above $1: the spreads |
Buy every Yes: the best Yes ask of every outcome added up, what one contract of each costs; it pays $1 only if one listed outcome wins. Sell every Yes: the best Yes bids added up; buying No on every outcome costs the count minus this sum and pays at least the count minus one, since at most one outcome wins. Sum of chances: the chances shown on Kalshi View (midpoint, or last trade when the spread is wide). Fees are the taker fee for 100 contracts a leg. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Every outcome of an event is its own market with its own order book, so the prices of all outcomes need not add up to exactly $1. Kalshi marks an event as mutually exclusive when at most one of its outcomes can resolve Yes. For those events, a sum of asks above $1 is the cost of crossing every spread; a sum below $1 means traders price in results the list does not name. The one gap that pays whatever happens is a sum of bids above $1, and the fee on every leg usually closes it. Prices move and books are thin on long-shot outcomes, so check the live order book on Kalshi before trading.
Related: arbitrage on Kalshi · bid and ask · fee calculator · order book · Kalshi vs Polymarket odds · all live Kalshi odds
Free JSON with every checked event: /api/v1/markets/arbitrage-check.json (CC BY 4.0: credit “Kalshi View” with a link).
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Rarely, and it is usually gone after fees. Inside one market there is nothing to exploit, because buying Yes and selling No are the same trade. Across the outcomes of an event where only one can win, the checkable case is bids that add up to more than $1: buying No on every outcome then pays at least the number of outcomes minus one. This page checks every such event twice a day.
Kalshi does not set the odds; traders do, and Kalshi charges a trading fee. Buying one Yes of every outcome still costs more than $1 because each outcome is bought at its ask, above the midpoint; long lists of unlikely outcomes, each offered at a cent or more, add the most.
Mutually exclusive means at most one outcome wins, not that one listed outcome must win. When the list leaves out possible results (another candidate, no winner by the deadline), every Yes can lose, so a total below $1 is the price of that gap.
The taker fee for 100 contracts on each leg, 0.07 x contracts x price x (1 - price) rounded up to the cent, as in the fee calculator. Buying No at 1 minus the Yes bid costs the same fee as selling Yes at the bid.