How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi Odds: 48 19%

Snapshot October 5, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Elections · Event RSENATESEATS-27

Current odds

Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.

Last 30 days

Outcome	Chance	24h change	Volume	Open interest
48	19%	-1 pts	168.7K	125.6K
47	15%	-2 pts	100.1K	85.1K
49	15%	·	37.5K	28.9K
50	12%	+1 pts	93.8K	69.3K
46	9.5%	·	111.2K	94.9K
Below 45	8.5%	·	171.3K	122.8K
51	7.5%	-1 pts	91.8K	68.9K
45	5.5%	-1 pts	104.7K	70.9K
52	5.0%	·	92.0K	68.9K
54	3.5%	+1 pts	86.6K	82.3K
53	3.5%	·	79.0K	75.2K
Above 57	2.5%	·	337.7K	310.5K
55	2.5%	+1 pts	95.7K	79.4K
56	1.5%	+1 pts	80.9K	73.0K
57	1.0%	·	65.9K	57.0K

■ 48 ■ 47 ■ 49 · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data

How this market settles

“If the Republican party has below 45 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.”

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Frequently asked questions

What are the Kalshi odds for How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

As of October 5, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is 48 at 19%, followed by 47 at 15%, 49 at 15%. 1.7M contracts have traded, 142.2K in the last 24 hours.

How are these Kalshi odds calculated?

Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.

When does the How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms market close?

The listed close date is February 1, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.

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How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 5). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 5, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/how-many-senate-seats-will-republicans-hold-after-the-midterms/

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@misc{kalshiview2026marketshowmanysenateseatswillrepublicansholdafterthemidterms, title = {How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-05 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/how-many-senate-seats-will-republicans-hold-after-the-midterms/}}

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