Compare › Kalshi vs Polymarket odds
Snapshot November 7, 2026 at 14:07 UTC · refreshed twice a day
On 8 events listed on both exchanges, Kalshi and Polymarket prices were 1.1 points apart on average per outcome (November 7, 2026 at 14:07 UTC). The widest gap: Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first, OpenAI at 7.0% on Kalshi and 2.2% on Polymarket. Check both order books and both fees before acting on a gap.
Kalshi event KXFEDDECISION-26DEC
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Kalshi minus Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 25 bp | 76% | 76% | 0 pts |
| No change | 24% | 22% | +3.0 pts |
| Hike 50 bp or more | 1.5% | 0.5% | +0.9 pts |
| Cut 50 bp or more | 1.0% | 0.7% | +0.4 pts |
| Cut 25 bp | 1.0% | 0.7% | +0.4 pts |
Kalshi event KXPRESPARTY-2028
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Kalshi minus Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 66% | 68% | -2.0 pts |
| Republicans | 34% | 32% | +2.0 pts |
Kalshi event KXSB-27
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Kalshi minus Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 14% | 14% | -0.6 pts |
| Buffalo Bills | 12% | 14% | -1.0 pts |
| Chicago Bears | 12% | 12% | +0.4 pts |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 8.5% | 11% | -2.3 pts |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 7.5% | 8.8% | -1.3 pts |
| Los Angeles Rams | 6.5% | 7.5% | -1.0 pts |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 5.5% | 5.0% | +0.5 pts |
| Seattle Seahawks | 5.5% | 4.5% | +1.0 pts |
| Denver Broncos | 4.5% | 4.5% | 0 pts |
| Detroit Lions | 4.5% | 3.6% | +0.9 pts |
Kalshi event KXNBA-27
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Kalshi minus Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio Spurs | 22% | 22% | 0 pts |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 16% | 16% | 0 pts |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 14% | 13% | +0.4 pts |
| Boston Celtics | 6.5% | 6.5% | 0 pts |
| Houston Rockets | 6.5% | 5.9% | +0.6 pts |
| New York Knicks | 6.5% | 6.5% | 0 pts |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 4.5% | 5.5% | -1.1 pts |
| Golden State Warriors | 5.5% | 2.2% | +3.2 pts |
| Detroit Pistons | 3.5% | 4.5% | -1.0 pts |
| Toronto Raptors | 3.5% | 3.6% | -0.1 pts |
Kalshi event KXNHL-27
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Kalshi minus Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina Hurricanes | 10% | 12% | -1.0 pts |
| Edmonton Oilers | 9.5% | 12% | -2.0 pts |
| Colorado Avalanche | 10% | 9.5% | +1.0 pts |
| Minnesota Wild | 9.5% | 7.5% | +2.0 pts |
| Florida Panthers | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0 pts |
| New Jersey Devils | 7.5% | 6.3% | +1.2 pts |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 6.5% | 7.5% | -1.0 pts |
| Dallas Stars | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0 pts |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 5.5% | 4.5% | +1.0 pts |
| Washington Capitals | 5.5% | 4.2% | +1.3 pts |
Kalshi event KXUCL-27
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Kalshi minus Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 22% | 24% | -2.0 pts |
| Arsenal | 14% | 14% | -1.0 pts |
| Real Madrid | 14% | 14% | -1.0 pts |
| Bayern Munich | 14% | 12% | +1.0 pts |
| Manchester City | 7.5% | 5.5% | +2.0 pts |
| Liverpool | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0 pts |
| Como | 2.5% | 2.1% | +0.5 pts |
| Atlético Madrid | 1.5% | 1.6% | -0.1 pts |
| Aston Villa | 1.5% | 1.1% | +0.3 pts |
| Inter Milan | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0 pts |
Kalshi event KXOAIANTH-40
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Kalshi minus Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 94% | 98% | -4.3 pts |
| OpenAI | 7.0% | 2.2% | +4.8 pts |
Kalshi event KXRECSSNBER-26
The rules differ: Polymarket resolves Yes on two negative GDP quarters or an NBER recession call; Kalshi counts only two consecutive negative GDP quarters.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Kalshi minus Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2.5% | 4.5% | -2.0 pts |
Prices are bid/ask midpoints on each exchange at the same moment, before fees. Data: Polymarket View's Kalshi comparison (CC BY 4.0), a sister site; how big the gaps get over time: price-gap study. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
A Kalshi taker order pays round up(0.07 x C x P x (1 - P)): $1.75 on 100 contracts at 50 cents, see the Kalshi fee calculator. Polymarket charges its own fee by market category. Add both spreads and the months your money sits until the event settles, and most gaps of a few points are gone. How good each exchange's prices are over time: how accurate Kalshi is.
They are separate order books with different traders, fees and access rules, and their contracts can resolve on slightly different wording, so prices drift apart; traders who buy on one and sell on the other pull them back together.
Only when the gap is bigger than the costs: Kalshi's taker fee, Polymarket's fee on that market, the spread on both books and the capital tied up until the event resolves. Most gaps on this page are a few points, which those costs usually wipe out.
Twice a day, from the matched-event snapshot Polymarket View publishes; both prices on a row are bid/ask midpoints taken at the same moment.