Snapshot September 24, 2026 at 11:56 UTC · Category: Elections · Event KXAKSENATE-26NOV03
As of September 24, 2026 at 11:56 UTC, the leading outcome is Mary Peltola at 72%, followed by Dan Sullivan at 28%, Daniel J. Sullivan at 1.0%. 300.7K contracts have traded, 35.5K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h change | Volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola | 72% | -5 pts | 156.9K | 119.4K |
| Dan Sullivan | 28% | +5 pts | 116.5K | 76.5K |
| Daniel J. Sullivan | 1.0% | · | 3.9K | 3.0K |
| Ann Diener | <1% | · | 8.9K | 4.8K |
| Richard Grayson | <1% | · | 7.3K | 3.0K |
| Sid Hill | <1% | · | 7.2K | 3.0K |
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
■ Mary Peltola ■ Dan Sullivan · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If Dan Sullivan wins the 2026 Alaska Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes. For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No. If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements. Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified. For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements). If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met. For …”
Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees and the payout calculator.
As of September 24, 2026 at 11:56 UTC, the leading outcome is Mary Peltola at 72%, followed by Dan Sullivan at 28%, Daniel J. Sullivan at 1.0%. 300.7K contracts have traded, 35.5K in the last 24 hours.
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
The listed close date is November 3, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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<iframe src="https://kalshiview.com/embed/markets/alaska-senate-winner-person/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Alaska Senate winner? (Person) Kalshi odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/alaska-senate-winner-person/">Alaska Senate winner? (Person) odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
/api/v1/markets/alaska-senate-winner-person.json (CC BY 4.0: credit “Kalshi View” with a link).
APA
Alaska Senate winner? (Person): Kalshi Odds. (2026, September 24). Kalshi View. Retrieved September 24, 2026 at 11:56 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/alaska-senate-winner-person/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketsalaskasenatewinnerperson, title = {Alaska Senate winner? (Person): Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Sep}, note = {Snapshot 2026-09-24 11:56 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/alaska-senate-winner-person/}}HTML credit
<a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/alaska-senate-winner-person/">Odds data: Kalshi View</a>
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