Snapshot October 4, 2026 at 11:20 UTC · Category: Elections · Event KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03
As of October 4, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Iowa at 20%, followed by Texas at 16%, Kansas at 9.5%. 681.1K contracts have traded, 5.5K in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Iowa ■ Texas ■ Kansas · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If Minnesota has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No.”
What are the Kalshi odds for Closest Senate race in 2026?
As of October 4, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Iowa at 20%, followed by Texas at 16%, Kansas at 9.5%. 681.1K contracts have traded, 5.5K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Closest Senate race in 2026 market close?
The listed close date is January 3, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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Closest Senate race in 2026? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 4). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 4, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/closest-senate-race-in-2026/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketsclosestsenateracein2026, title = {Closest Senate race in 2026? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-04 11:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/closest-senate-race-in-2026/}}
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