Glossary › Implied probability
Checked September 25, 2026 · 2 sources · plain-English definition, not financial advice
Implied probability: The chance of an outcome implied by its price: a Yes contract at 62¢ implies about a 62% chance, before fees and the bid-ask spread.
Because a winning Kalshi contract pays $1, its price in cents reads as a percentage. Kalshi's help center says its prices correlate directly with the market's perceived probability: if traders see a 70% chance, Yes trades near 70¢ and No near 30¢. The CFTC's guide says the same: a contract's price reflects traders' perceived probability of the outcome.
Worked example: you buy 100 Yes contracts at 62¢ for $62.00. If Yes wins you receive $100.00, a $38.00 gain before fees; if it loses you lose $62.00. To expect a profit you need to believe the true chance is higher than 62% plus the fee per contract, measured from the ask you actually pay rather than the last trade or the midpoint.
Implied probability is the market's estimate, not a guarantee, and it can be off, especially in thin markets. Kalshi View's accuracy study checks prices against how settled markets actually resolved, and the odds converter turns a price into American, decimal and fractional odds.
Kalshi odds converter · How accurate Kalshi prices are · Kalshi implied probability, EV and break-even
Checked September 25, 2026. Kalshi changes fees, rules, funding options and limits; the market's rules, the order ticket and Kalshi's help center are the final word.
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