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Who will be Israeli national security minister after the election? Kalshi Odds
Snapshot October 9, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Elections · Event KXISRNATSECMIN-26OCT27
As of October 9, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Itamar Ben-Gvir at 24%, followed by Yoram Cohen at 24%, Talya Lankri at 15%. 26.1K contracts have traded, 26.1K in the last 24 hours.
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | 24h change | Volume | Open interest |
|---|
| Itamar Ben-Gvir | 24% | · | 284 | 284 |
| Yoram Cohen | 24% | · | 207 | 195 |
| Talya Lankri | 15% | · | 0 | 0 |
| Ofer Winter | 7.5% | · | 0 | 0 |
| Yitzhak Wasserlauf | 5.5% | · | 47 | 47 |
| Amir Ohana | 5.0% | · | 3.2K | 3.2K |
| Chili Tropper | 5.0% | · | 0 | 0 |
| Yoaz Hendel | 5.0% | · | 0 | 0 |
| Bezalel Smotrich | 4.5% | · | 0 | 0 |
| Ram Ben-Barak | 4.5% | · | 0 | 0 |
| Tally Gotliv | 4.5% | · | 0 | 0 |
| Yair Golan | 4.0% | · | 3.2K | 3.2K |
| Elazar Stern | 4.0% | · | 0 | 0 |
| Meirav Ben-Ari | 4.0% | · | 0 | 0 |
| Matan Kahana | 3.5% | · | 0 | 0 |
| Gideon Sa'ar | 3.0% | · | 0 | 0 |
| Yossi Cohen | 3.0% | · | 0 | 0 |
| Hamad Amar | 2.5% | · | 4.3K | 3.2K |
| Haim Katz | 2.5% | · | 3.2K | 3.2K |
| Amichai Eliyahu | 2.5% | · | 0 | 0 |
4 lower-priced outcomes are in the JSON data.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If Amichai Eliyahu formally takes office as Minister of National Security as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only the first person to formally take office as Minister of National Security in the government formed after the 2026 Israeli legislative election, when it takes office or within 30 days after its first ministers are appointed, counts. An incumbent reappointed to the post counts; later reshuffles, rotations and appointments do not. Nominations, coalition agreements and announcements do not count, nor do acting, caretaker or interim service or a head of government holding the portfolio only by default while it is unassigned. If the ministry is renamed or restructured, such as back to the Ministry of Public Security, the minister of a successor ministry with substantially the …”
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Frequently asked questions
What are the Kalshi odds for Who will be Israeli national security minister after the election?
As of October 9, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Itamar Ben-Gvir at 24%, followed by Yoram Cohen at 24%, Talya Lankri at 15%. 26.1K contracts have traded, 26.1K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Who will be Israeli national security minister after the election market close?
The listed close date is October 27, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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Who will be Israeli national security minister after the election? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 9). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 9, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/who-will-be-israeli-national-security-minister-after-the-election/
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@misc{kalshiview2026marketswhowillbeisraelinationalsecurityministeraftertheelection, title = {Who will be Israeli national security minister after the election? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-09 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/who-will-be-israeli-national-security-minister-after-the-election/}}HTML credit
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