Snapshot September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC · Category: Elections · Event KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSEND
As of September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC, the leading outcome is James Talarico, 1+ pts at 53%, followed by James Talarico, 3+ pts at 36%, James Talarico, 5+ pts at 22%. 167.8K contracts have traded, 13.2K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h change | Volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico, 1+ pts | 53% | +1 pts | 44.9K | 19.8K |
| James Talarico, 3+ pts | 36% | -4 pts | 63.8K | 46.6K |
| James Talarico, 5+ pts | 22% | · | 42.4K | 36.0K |
| James Talarico, 7+ pts | 12% | · | 16.7K | 12.6K |
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
■ James Talarico, 1+ pts ■ James Talarico, 3+ pts ■ James Talarico, 5+ pts · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, …”
Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees and the payout calculator.
As of September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC, the leading outcome is James Talarico, 1+ pts at 53%, followed by James Talarico, 3+ pts at 36%, James Talarico, 5+ pts at 22%. 167.8K contracts have traded, 13.2K in the last 24 hours.
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
The listed close date is November 3, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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<iframe src="https://kalshiview.com/embed/markets/texas-senate-margin-of-victory/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Texas Senate margin of victory Kalshi odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/texas-senate-margin-of-victory/">Texas Senate margin of victory odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
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