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Who will be Israeli finance minister after the election? Kalshi Odds
Snapshot October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Elections · Event KXISRFINMIN-26OCT27
As of October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Bezalel Smotrich at 22%, followed by Avigdor Lieberman at 8.5%, Eli Cohen at 8.5%. 75.9K contracts have traded, 75.7K in the last 24 hours.
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | 24h change | Volume | Open interest |
|---|
| Bezalel Smotrich | 22% | · | 6.6K | 3.2K |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 8.5% | · | 0 | 0 |
| Eli Cohen | 8.5% | · | 1.9K | 1.9K |
| Shaul Meridor | 7.5% | · | 0 | 0 |
| Keren Terner Eyal | 5.5% | · | 2.5K | 510 |
| Israel Katz | 2.5% | · | 3.0K | 3.0K |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 2.0% | · | 7.6K | 5.3K |
| Yair Lapid | 2.0% | · | 3.2K | 3.2K |
| Orit Farkash-Hacohen | 1.5% | · | 5.4K | 4.7K |
| Naftali Bennett | 1.5% | -2 pts | 4.5K | 3.7K |
| Nir Barkat | 1.5% | · | 2.2K | 1.6K |
| Yaron Zelekha | 1.5% | · | 1.5K | 1.2K |
| Moshe Feiglin | 1.0% | · | 9.0K | 5.0K |
| Gadi Eisenkot | 1.0% | · | 6.8K | 5.0K |
| Naama Lazimi | 1.0% | · | 6.7K | 5.0K |
| Yair Golan | 1.0% | · | 5.4K | 4.8K |
| Chili Tropper | 1.0% | · | 5.2K | 5.0K |
| Aryeh Deri | 1.0% | · | 4.6K | 4.6K |
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If Aryeh Deri formally takes office as Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only the first person to formally take office as Minister of Finance in the government formed after the 2026 Israeli legislative election, when it takes office or within 30 days after its first ministers are appointed, counts. An incumbent reappointed to the post counts; later reshuffles, rotations and appointments do not. Nominations, coalition agreements and announcements do not count, nor do acting, caretaker or interim service or a head of government holding the portfolio only by default while it is unassigned. If no government is formed after the election before Oct 27, 2027, including because a new election is called first, every market resolves No.”
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Frequently asked questions
What are the Kalshi odds for Who will be Israeli finance minister after the election?
As of October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Bezalel Smotrich at 22%, followed by Avigdor Lieberman at 8.5%, Eli Cohen at 8.5%. 75.9K contracts have traded, 75.7K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Who will be Israeli finance minister after the election market close?
The listed close date is October 27, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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Who will be Israeli finance minister after the election? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 10). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/who-will-be-israeli-finance-minister-after-the-election/
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@misc{kalshiview2026marketswhowillbeisraelifinanceministeraftertheelection, title = {Who will be Israeli finance minister after the election? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-10 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/who-will-be-israeli-finance-minister-after-the-election/}}HTML credit
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