Which leaders will leave office in 2026? Kalshi Odds
Snapshot October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Politics · Event KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01
As of October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Christopher Luxon at 48%, followed by Benjamin Netanyahu at 38%, Pedro Sánchez at 24%. 3.8M contracts have traded, 17.3K in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Christopher Luxon ■ Benjamin Netanyahu ■ Pedro Sánchez · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If Benjamin Netanyahu has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of Israel or has actually left Prime Minister of Israel before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office. Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency to be considered official. The announcement must not specify they are leaving in more than a year from the statement, in which case the market does not resolve to Yes. "Leaving office" means the person no longer holds the office in any capacity, including but not limited to: resignation (effective), termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or the expiration of their term without renewal. Temporary absences such …”
What are the Kalshi odds for Which leaders will leave office in 2026?
As of October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Christopher Luxon at 48%, followed by Benjamin Netanyahu at 38%, Pedro Sánchez at 24%. 3.8M contracts have traded, 17.3K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Which leaders will leave office in 2026 market close?
The listed close dates range from January 1, 2027 to January 2, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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Which leaders will leave office in 2026? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 10). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/which-leaders-will-leave-office-in-2026/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketswhichleaderswillleaveofficein2026, title = {Which leaders will leave office in 2026? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-10 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/which-leaders-will-leave-office-in-2026/}}
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