{ "slug": "which-leaders-will-leave-office-in-2026", "event_ticker": "KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01", "series_ticker": "KXLEADERSOUT", "title": "Which leaders will leave office in 2026?", "category": "Politics", "url": "https://kalshiview.com/markets/which-leaders-will-leave-office-in-2026/", "kalshi_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxleadersout", "updated": "2026-10-10T23:20:00+00:00", "closed": false, "volume_contracts": 3832713.17, "volume_24h_contracts": 17313.59, "open_interest_contracts": 1156219.15, "outcomes": [ { "name": "Christopher Luxon", "ticker": "KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-PLUXPMNZ", "probability": 0.485, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 16993.44, "open_interest_contracts": 6098.45, "close_time": "2027-01-02T03:17:48+00:00" }, { "name": "Benjamin Netanyahu", "ticker": "KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-BNETISR", "probability": 0.385, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 568365.34, "open_interest_contracts": 181646.44, "close_time": "2027-01-02T03:17:48+00:00" }, { "name": "Pedro Sánchez", "ticker": "KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-PSANPM", "probability": 0.235, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 56236.21, "open_interest_contracts": 16552.88, "close_time": "2027-01-02T03:17:49+00:00" }, { "name": "Sébastien Lecornu", "ticker": "KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-SLECPMFR", "probability": 0.205, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 2193.82, "open_interest_contracts": 2044.83, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Miguel Díaz-Canel", "ticker": "KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-MDIACPC", "probability": 0.09, "change_24h": -0.002, "volume_contracts": 740641.83, "open_interest_contracts": 137263.81, "close_time": "2027-01-02T03:17:49+00:00" }, { "name": "Friedrich Merz", "ticker": "KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-FMERCGER", "probability": 0.0865, "change_24h": -0.014, "volume_contracts": 91218.91, "open_interest_contracts": 28312.96, "close_time": "2027-01-02T03:17:49+00:00" }, { "name": "Rodrigo Paz Pereira", "ticker": "KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-RPERBOL", "probability": 0.0835, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 4938.4, "open_interest_contracts": 2605.9, "close_time": "2027-01-02T03:17:48+00:00" }, { "name": "Volodymyr Zelenskyy", "ticker": "KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VZELUKR", "probability": 0.0795, "change_24h": 0.014, "volume_contracts": 128383.58, "open_interest_contracts": 38350.32, "close_time": "2027-01-02T03:17:48+00:00" }, { "name": "Mette Frederiksen", "ticker": "KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-MFREPMD", "probability": 0.0655, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 13268.33, "open_interest_contracts": 2438.35, "close_time": "2027-01-02T03:17:49+00:00" }, { "name": "Lee Jae Myung", "ticker": "KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-LJMKOR", "probability": 0.0655, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 9905.77, "open_interest_contracts": 6861.73, "close_time": "2027-01-02T03:17:48+00:00" }, { "name": "Narendra Modi", "ticker": "KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-NMODIND", "probability": 0.065, "change_24h": 0.007, "volume_contracts": 7355.8, "open_interest_contracts": 3544.55, "close_time": "2027-01-02T03:17:48+00:00" }, { "name": "Delcy Rodriguez", "ticker": "KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-DRODAPRE", "probability": 0.0645, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 24818.43, "open_interest_contracts": 8039.85, "close_time": "2027-01-02T03:17:49+00:00" }, { "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", "ticker": "KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-CRAMSAFR", "probability": 0.064, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 8627.62, "open_interest_contracts": 4220.41, "close_time": "2027-01-02T03:17:48+00:00" }, { "name": "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva", "ticker": "KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-LSILBRA", "probability": 0.0515, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 64927.32, "open_interest_contracts": 23709.03, "close_time": "2027-01-02T03:17:48+00:00" }, { "name": "Ahmad al-Sharaa", "ticker": "KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-AALSSYR", "probability": 0.0515, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 27643.9, "open_interest_contracts": 7911.74, "close_time": "2027-01-02T03:17:48+00:00" }, { "name": "Denis Sassou Nguesso", "ticker": "KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-TRUEPDRC", "probability": 0.0485, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 1382.57, "open_interest_contracts": 885.87, "close_time": "2027-01-02T03:17:49+00:00" }, { "name": "Mohammed bin Salman", "ticker": "KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-MBSSARA", "probability": 0.0465, "change_24h": 0.002, "volume_contracts": 15132.39, "open_interest_contracts": 9289.92, "close_time": "2027-01-02T03:17:48+00:00" }, { "name": "Ramzan Kadyrov", "ticker": "KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-RKADCHEC", "probability": 0.045, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 6987.5, "open_interest_contracts": 4244.55, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Félix Tshisekedi", "ticker": "KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-FTSHPDRC", "probability": 0.043, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 1272.95, "open_interest_contracts": 911.17, "close_time": "2027-01-02T03:17:49+00:00" }, { "name": "Claudia Sheinbaum", "ticker": "KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-CSHEPMEX", "probability": 0.0405, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 149648.39, "open_interest_contracts": 52705.72, "close_time": "2027-01-02T03:17:48+00:00" }, { "name": "Sanae Takaichi", "ticker": "KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-STAKJAP", "probability": 0.04, "change_24h": -0.016, "volume_contracts": 48093.33, "open_interest_contracts": 20502.84, "close_time": "2027-01-02T03:17:48+00:00" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", "ticker": "KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-EMACFRA", "probability": 0.038, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 91291.53, "open_interest_contracts": 24035.35, "close_time": "2027-01-02T03:17:48+00:00" }, { "name": "Vladimir Putin", "ticker": "KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VPUTRUS", "probability": 0.0375, "change_24h": -0.025, "volume_contracts": 783224.12, "open_interest_contracts": 337137.71, "close_time": "2027-01-02T03:17:48+00:00" }, { "name": "Daniel Noboa", "ticker": "KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-DNOBECUA", "probability": 0.0375, "change_24h": -0.01, "volume_contracts": 1227.8, "open_interest_contracts": 452.58, "close_time": "2027-01-02T03:17:48+00:00" }, { "name": "Irfaan Ali", "ticker": "KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-IALIPGUY", "probability": 0.0345, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 605.34, "open_interest_contracts": 173.64, "close_time": "2027-01-02T03:17:49+00:00" }, { "name": "Javier Milei", "ticker": "KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-JMILARG", "probability": 0.034, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 5338.68, "open_interest_contracts": 2346.03, "close_time": "2027-01-02T03:17:48+00:00" }, { "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan", "ticker": "KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-RERDTUR", "probability": 0.0335, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 20931.39, "open_interest_contracts": 10699.2, "close_time": "2027-01-02T03:17:48+00:00" }, { "name": "Jens-Frederik Nielsen", "ticker": "KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-JFNPMG", "probability": 0.0315, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 9411.34, "open_interest_contracts": 2257.98, "close_time": "2027-01-02T03:17:49+00:00" }, { "name": "Giorgia Meloni", "ticker": "KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-GMELITA", "probability": 0.031, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 8341.74, "open_interest_contracts": 4161.5, "close_time": "2027-01-02T03:17:48+00:00" }, { "name": "Frederik X", "ticker": "KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-FXKD", "probability": 0.026, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 3860.62, "open_interest_contracts": 1153.02, "close_time": "2027-01-02T03:17:49+00:00" }, { "name": "Mark Carney", "ticker": "KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-MCARCAN", "probability": 0.0255, "change_24h": -0.008, "volume_contracts": 15069.76, "open_interest_contracts": 7749.7, "close_time": "2027-01-02T03:17:48+00:00" }, { "name": "Xi Jinping", "ticker": "KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-XJINCHI", "probability": 0.0235, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 680667.13, "open_interest_contracts": 145729.59, "close_time": "2027-01-02T03:17:48+00:00" }, { "name": "Kim Jong Un", "ticker": "KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-KJONDPRK", "probability": 0.0235, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 24491.36, "open_interest_contracts": 11024.5, "close_time": "2027-01-02T03:17:48+00:00" }, { "name": "Nayib Bukele", "ticker": "KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-NBUKELSA", "probability": 0.0205, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 6229.26, "open_interest_contracts": 4442.26, "close_time": "2027-01-02T03:17:48+00:00" } ], "history": { "Christopher Luxon": [ [ 1789099200, 0.45 ], [ 1789272000, 0.45 ], [ 1789358400, 0.43 ], [ 1789531200, 0.49 ], [ 1789617600, 0.48 ], [ 1789704000, 0.48 ], [ 1789790400, 0.46 ], [ 1789876800, 0.5 ], [ 1789963200, 0.47 ], [ 1790049600, 0.47 ], [ 1790136000, 0.47 ], [ 1790222400, 0.47 ], [ 1790481600, 0.47 ], [ 1790568000, 0.47 ], [ 1790654400, 0.46 ], [ 1790740800, 0.47 ], [ 1791000000, 0.45 ], [ 1791259200, 0.45 ], [ 1791432000, 0.5 ], [ 1791604800, 0.49 ] ], "Benjamin Netanyahu": [ [ 1789099200, 0.5 ], [ 1789185600, 0.45 ], [ 1789272000, 0.44 ], [ 1789358400, 0.44 ], [ 1789444800, 0.44 ], [ 1789531200, 0.47 ], [ 1789617600, 0.46 ], [ 1789704000, 0.46 ], [ 1789790400, 0.48 ], [ 1789876800, 0.48 ], [ 1789963200, 0.49 ], [ 1790049600, 0.48 ], [ 1790136000, 0.49 ], [ 1790222400, 0.47 ], [ 1790308800, 0.48 ], [ 1790395200, 0.44 ], [ 1790481600, 0.44 ], [ 1790568000, 0.44 ], [ 1790654400, 0.39 ], [ 1790740800, 0.44 ], [ 1790827200, 0.47 ], [ 1790913600, 0.47 ], [ 1791000000, 0.47 ], [ 1791086400, 0.45 ], [ 1791172800, 0.45 ], [ 1791259200, 0.43 ], [ 1791345600, 0.43 ], [ 1791432000, 0.41 ], [ 1791518400, 0.38 ], [ 1791604800, 0.37 ] ], "Pedro Sánchez": [ [ 1789099200, 0.16 ], [ 1789185600, 0.15 ], [ 1789531200, 0.15 ], [ 1789790400, 0.14 ], [ 1790308800, 0.095 ], [ 1790568000, 0.11 ], [ 1790654400, 0.095 ], [ 1790740800, 0.11 ], [ 1790827200, 0.11 ], [ 1790913600, 0.11 ], [ 1791000000, 0.26 ], [ 1791086400, 0.24 ], [ 1791172800, 0.34 ], [ 1791259200, 0.32 ], [ 1791345600, 0.32 ], [ 1791432000, 0.32 ], [ 1791518400, 0.24 ], [ 1791604800, 0.24 ] ] }, "license": "CC BY 4.0", "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/", "attribution": { "required": true, "text": "Odds data: Kalshi View (kalshiview.com)", "url": "https://kalshiview.com/markets/which-leaders-will-leave-office-in-2026/", "html": "Odds data: Kalshi View" }, "source": "Kalshi public trade API; Kalshi View is not affiliated with Kalshi. Verify on Kalshi before trading." }