Snapshot October 4, 2026 at 11:20 UTC · Category: Elections · Event KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR
As of October 4, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Ken Paxton, 1+ pts at 32%, followed by Ken Paxton, 3+ pts at 20%, Ken Paxton, 5+ pts at 10%. 314.7K contracts have traded, 10.6K in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Ken Paxton, 1+ pts ■ Ken Paxton, 3+ pts ■ Ken Paxton, 5+ pts · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, …”
What are the Kalshi odds for Texas Senate margin of victory?
As of October 4, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Ken Paxton, 1+ pts at 32%, followed by Ken Paxton, 3+ pts at 20%, Ken Paxton, 5+ pts at 10%. 314.7K contracts have traded, 10.6K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Texas Senate margin of victory market close?
The listed close date is November 3, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
Use this data
Embed these odds
Paste on your site or newsletter; it updates with this page.
<iframe src="https://kalshiview.com/embed/markets/texas-senate-margin-of-victory-kxmidtermmov-txsenr/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Texas Senate margin of victory Kalshi odds"></iframe>
<p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/texas-senate-margin-of-victory-kxmidtermmov-txsenr/">Texas Senate margin of victory odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
Image badge for READMEs, forums and newsletters that block iframes (HTML or Markdown):
<a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/texas-senate-margin-of-victory-kxmidtermmov-txsenr/"><img src="https://kalshiview.com/embed/markets/texas-senate-margin-of-victory-kxmidtermmov-txsenr/badge.svg" alt="Texas Senate margin of victory Kalshi odds" height="20"></a>
[](https://kalshiview.com/markets/texas-senate-margin-of-victory-kxmidtermmov-txsenr/)
Texas Senate margin of victory: Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 4). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 4, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/texas-senate-margin-of-victory-kxmidtermmov-txsenr/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketstexassenatemarginofvictorykxmidtermmovtxsenr, title = {Texas Senate margin of victory: Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-04 11:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/texas-senate-margin-of-victory-kxmidtermmov-txsenr/}}
Daily Kalshi market checks, results and settlement coverage are posted in the @Kalshi_market channel on Telegram. It is a coverage feed, not a per-market alert service.
