Snapshot October 4, 2026 at 11:20 UTC · Category: Elections · Event SENATETN-26
As of October 4, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Bill Hagerty at 95%, followed by Marquita Bradshaw at 5.0%. 73.3K contracts have traded, 31.5K in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Bill Hagerty ■ Marquita Bradshaw · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Tennessee for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.”
What are the Kalshi odds for Tennessee Senate winner?
As of October 4, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Bill Hagerty at 95%, followed by Marquita Bradshaw at 5.0%. 73.3K contracts have traded, 31.5K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Tennessee Senate winner market close?
The listed close date is November 3, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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Tennessee Senate winner? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 4). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 4, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/tennessee-senate-winner/
Daily Kalshi market checks, results and settlement coverage are posted in the @Kalshi_market channel on Telegram. It is a coverage feed, not a per-market alert service.
