Snapshot September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC · Category: Politics · Event KXDSENATEWON-26NOV03
As of September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC, the leading outcome is At least 10 at 96%, followed by At least 12 at 96%, At least 11 at 95%. 25.9K contracts have traded, 7.0K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h change | Volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 10 | 96% | · | 15 | 15 |
| At least 12 | 96% | +3 pts | 6.0K | 4.8K |
| At least 11 | 95% | +2 pts | 2.4K | 960 |
| At least 13 | 92% | · | 1.4K | 1.4K |
| At least 14 | 90% | +1 pts | 1.9K | 1.9K |
| At least 15 | 86% | · | 3.6K | 2.6K |
| At least 16 | 76% | · | 844 | 840 |
| At least 17 | 64% | · | 2.0K | 1.8K |
| At least 18 | 50% | -1 pts | 410 | 332 |
| At least 19 | 30% | -7 pts | 4.4K | 4.3K |
| At least 20 | 18% | -3 pts | 1.7K | 1.7K |
| At least 21 | 7.5% | -3 pts | 895 | 720 |
| At least 22 | 4.0% | · | 386 | 385 |
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
■ At least 12 ■ At least 11 · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 10 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes. A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records a Democratic designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in the November 3, 2026 general election; a recognized state affiliate (including the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party and the North Dakota Democratic-Nonpartisan League Party), any one of several ballot lines, or a declared write-in candidacy so recorded all qualify. Caucus affiliation, endorsements and later party changes do not affect the count: a member elected without a Democratic designation who caucuses with Democrats is not counted, and one elected as a Democratic candidate who later leaves remains counted. All 35 U.S. Senate contests on the November 3, 2026 ballot count, including the Florida and …”
Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees and the payout calculator.
As of September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC, the leading outcome is At least 10 at 96%, followed by At least 12 at 96%, At least 11 at 95%. 25.9K contracts have traded, 7.0K in the last 24 hours.
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
The listed close date is January 3, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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<iframe src="https://kalshiview.com/embed/markets/how-many-senate-seats-will-democrats-win-in-the-midterms/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="How many Senate seats will Democrats win in the Midterms? Kalshi odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/how-many-senate-seats-will-democrats-win-in-the-midterms/">How many Senate seats will Democrats win in the Midterms? odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
/api/v1/markets/how-many-senate-seats-will-democrats-win-in-the-midterms.json (CC BY 4.0: credit “Kalshi View” with a link).