How many Senate seats will Democrats win in the Midterms? Kalshi Odds
Snapshot October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Politics · Event KXDSENATEWON-26NOV03
As of October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is At least 10 at 98%, followed by At least 11 at 98%, At least 12 at 96%. 54.3K contracts have traded, 29 in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ At least 10 ■ At least 11 ■ At least 12 · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 10 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes. A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records a Democratic designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in the November 3, 2026 general election; a recognized state affiliate (including the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party and the North Dakota Democratic-Nonpartisan League Party), any one of several ballot lines, or a declared write-in candidacy so recorded all qualify. Caucus affiliation, endorsements and later party changes do not affect the count: a member elected without a Democratic designation who caucuses with Democrats is not counted, and one elected as a Democratic candidate who later leaves remains counted. All 35 U.S. Senate contests on the November 3, 2026 ballot count, including the Florida and …”
What are the Kalshi odds for How many Senate seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?
As of October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is At least 10 at 98%, followed by At least 11 at 98%, At least 12 at 96%. 54.3K contracts have traded, 29 in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the How many Senate seats will Democrats win in the Midterms market close?
The listed close date is January 3, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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How many Senate seats will Democrats win in the Midterms? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 8). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/how-many-senate-seats-will-democrats-win-in-the-midterms/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketshowmanysenateseatswilldemocratswininthemidterms, title = {How many Senate seats will Democrats win in the Midterms? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-08 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/how-many-senate-seats-will-democrats-win-in-the-midterms/}}
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