Brazil presidential runoff: which states will Flávio Bolsonaro win? Kalshi Odds
Snapshot October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Elections · Event KXBRRUNOFFSTATES-26OCT25-1
As of October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Tocantins at 98%, followed by Roraima at 97%, Minas Gerais at 96%. 53.8K contracts have traded, 18.9K in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Tocantins ■ Minas Gerais · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If Flávio Bolsonaro finishes in 1st place in the state of Amapá in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: Rank is based on runoff vote totals only In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. Each market ranks the runoff votes cast in the named state, as reported by the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE). Votes cast abroad are not part of any state.”
What are the Kalshi odds for Brazil presidential runoff: which states will Flávio Bolsonaro win?
As of October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Tocantins at 98%, followed by Roraima at 97%, Minas Gerais at 96%. 53.8K contracts have traded, 18.9K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Brazil presidential runoff: which states will Flávio Bolsonaro win market close?
The listed close date is October 25, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
Use this data
Embed these odds
Paste on your site or newsletter; it updates with this page.
<iframe src="https://kalshiview.com/embed/markets/brazil-presidential-runoff-which-states-will-fl-vio-bolsonaro-win/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Brazil presidential runoff: which states will Flávio Bolsonaro win? Kalshi odds"></iframe>
<p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/brazil-presidential-runoff-which-states-will-fl-vio-bolsonaro-win/">Brazil presidential runoff: which states will Flávio Bolsonaro win? odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
Image badge for READMEs, forums and newsletters that block iframes (HTML or Markdown):
<a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/brazil-presidential-runoff-which-states-will-fl-vio-bolsonaro-win/"><img src="https://kalshiview.com/embed/markets/brazil-presidential-runoff-which-states-will-fl-vio-bolsonaro-win/badge.svg" alt="Brazil presidential runoff: which states will Flávio Bolsonaro win? Kalshi odds" height="20"></a>
[](https://kalshiview.com/markets/brazil-presidential-runoff-which-states-will-fl-vio-bolsonaro-win/)
Brazil presidential runoff: which states will Flávio Bolsonaro win? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 10). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/brazil-presidential-runoff-which-states-will-fl-vio-bolsonaro-win/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketsbrazilpresidentialrunoffwhichstateswillflviobolsonarowin, title = {Brazil presidential runoff: which states will Flávio Bolsonaro win? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-10 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/brazil-presidential-runoff-which-states-will-fl-vio-bolsonaro-win/}}
Daily Kalshi market checks, results and settlement coverage are posted in the @Kalshi_market channel on Telegram. It is a coverage feed, not a per-market alert service.
