Snapshot September 30, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Science and Technology · Event KXAISPIKE-27
As of September 30, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is At least 1520 score at 98%, followed by At least 1530 score at 97%, At least 1540 score at 40%. 236.8K contracts have traded, 41.8K in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ At least 1520 score ■ At least 1530 score ■ At least 1540 score · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If an AI model has a score of at least 1520 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.”
What are the Kalshi odds for AI capability growth this year?
As of September 30, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is At least 1520 score at 98%, followed by At least 1530 score at 97%, At least 1540 score at 40%. 236.8K contracts have traded, 41.8K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the AI capability growth this year market close?
The listed close date is January 1, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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AI capability growth this year? Kalshi Odds. (2026, September 30). Kalshi View. Retrieved September 30, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/ai-capability-growth-this-year/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketsaicapabilitygrowththisyear, title = {AI capability growth this year? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Sep}, note = {Snapshot 2026-09-30 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/ai-capability-growth-this-year/}}
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