{
 "slug": "2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-generic-ballot",
 "event_ticker": "KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03",
 "series_ticker": "KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN",
 "title": "2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)",
 "category": "Politics",
 "url": "https://kalshiview.com/markets/2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-generic-ballot/",
 "kalshi_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhousepopvotemargin",
 "updated": "2026-09-24T04:37:29+00:00",
 "closed": false,
 "volume_contracts": 1735668.13,
 "volume_24h_contracts": 17194.54,
 "open_interest_contracts": 1359176.17,
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Democrats, 8 to 10%",
   "ticker": "KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B9",
   "probability": 0.28,
   "change_24h": 0.0,
   "volume_contracts": 156734.42,
   "open_interest_contracts": 136321.37,
   "close_time": "2027-11-03T13:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrats, 10 to 12%",
   "ticker": "KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B11",
   "probability": 0.225,
   "change_24h": 0.01,
   "volume_contracts": 131086.19,
   "open_interest_contracts": 107071.02,
   "close_time": "2027-11-03T13:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrats, 6 to 8%",
   "ticker": "KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B7",
   "probability": 0.165,
   "change_24h": -0.01,
   "volume_contracts": 106629.06,
   "open_interest_contracts": 92626.09,
   "close_time": "2027-11-03T13:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrats, 12 to 14%",
   "ticker": "KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B13",
   "probability": 0.135,
   "change_24h": 0.01,
   "volume_contracts": 116871.41,
   "open_interest_contracts": 96206.88,
   "close_time": "2027-11-03T13:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrats, 4 to 6%",
   "ticker": "KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B5",
   "probability": 0.0805,
   "change_24h": -0.003,
   "volume_contracts": 82257.11,
   "open_interest_contracts": 76545.28,
   "close_time": "2027-11-03T13:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "name": "Republicans win",
   "ticker": "KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B50",
   "probability": 0.0545,
   "change_24h": 0.008,
   "volume_contracts": 550929.36,
   "open_interest_contracts": 363762.11,
   "close_time": "2027-11-03T13:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrats, 14 to 16%",
   "ticker": "KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B15",
   "probability": 0.0505,
   "change_24h": -0.002,
   "volume_contracts": 75922.84,
   "open_interest_contracts": 57280.62,
   "close_time": "2027-11-03T13:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrats, 2 to 4%",
   "ticker": "KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B3",
   "probability": 0.0345,
   "change_24h": -0.001,
   "volume_contracts": 159790.77,
   "open_interest_contracts": 135388.61,
   "close_time": "2027-11-03T13:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrats, 16% and above",
   "ticker": "KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B58",
   "probability": 0.022,
   "change_24h": -0.002,
   "volume_contracts": 121521.85,
   "open_interest_contracts": 99098.8,
   "close_time": "2027-11-03T13:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrats, 0 to 2%",
   "ticker": "KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B1",
   "probability": 0.0135,
   "change_24h": -0.015,
   "volume_contracts": 233925.12,
   "open_interest_contracts": 194875.39,
   "close_time": "2027-11-03T13:59:00+00:00"
  }
 ],
 "history": {
  "Democrats, 8 to 10%": [
   [
    1787716800,
    0.26
   ],
   [
    1787803200,
    0.27
   ],
   [
    1787889600,
    0.26
   ],
   [
    1787976000,
    0.27
   ],
   [
    1788062400,
    0.27
   ],
   [
    1788148800,
    0.27
   ],
   [
    1788235200,
    0.26
   ],
   [
    1788321600,
    0.26
   ],
   [
    1788408000,
    0.25
   ],
   [
    1788494400,
    0.25
   ],
   [
    1788667200,
    0.24
   ],
   [
    1788753600,
    0.24
   ],
   [
    1788840000,
    0.24
   ],
   [
    1788926400,
    0.25
   ],
   [
    1789012800,
    0.25
   ],
   [
    1789099200,
    0.24
   ],
   [
    1789185600,
    0.24
   ],
   [
    1789272000,
    0.25
   ],
   [
    1789358400,
    0.24
   ],
   [
    1789444800,
    0.25
   ],
   [
    1789531200,
    0.25
   ],
   [
    1789704000,
    0.24
   ],
   [
    1789790400,
    0.24
   ],
   [
    1789876800,
    0.24
   ],
   [
    1789963200,
    0.25
   ],
   [
    1790049600,
    0.26
   ],
   [
    1790136000,
    0.28
   ],
   [
    1790222400,
    0.28
   ]
  ],
  "Democrats, 10 to 12%": [
   [
    1787716800,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1787803200,
    0.2
   ],
   [
    1787889600,
    0.2
   ],
   [
    1787976000,
    0.19
   ],
   [
    1788062400,
    0.2
   ],
   [
    1788235200,
    0.19
   ],
   [
    1788321600,
    0.18
   ],
   [
    1788408000,
    0.18
   ],
   [
    1788494400,
    0.17
   ],
   [
    1788580800,
    0.17
   ],
   [
    1788667200,
    0.18
   ],
   [
    1788753600,
    0.18
   ],
   [
    1788840000,
    0.17
   ],
   [
    1788926400,
    0.18
   ],
   [
    1789012800,
    0.18
   ],
   [
    1789099200,
    0.17
   ],
   [
    1789185600,
    0.18
   ],
   [
    1789272000,
    0.18
   ],
   [
    1789358400,
    0.18
   ],
   [
    1789444800,
    0.19
   ],
   [
    1789531200,
    0.2
   ],
   [
    1789617600,
    0.21
   ],
   [
    1789704000,
    0.2
   ],
   [
    1789790400,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1789876800,
    0.24
   ],
   [
    1789963200,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1790049600,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1790136000,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1790222400,
    0.23
   ]
  ],
  "Democrats, 6 to 8%": [
   [
    1787716800,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1787803200,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1787889600,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1787976000,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1788062400,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1788148800,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1788235200,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1788321600,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1788408000,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1788494400,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1788753600,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1788840000,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1789012800,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1789099200,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1789185600,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1789272000,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1789444800,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1789531200,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1789617600,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1789704000,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1789790400,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1789876800,
    0.19
   ],
   [
    1789963200,
    0.18
   ],
   [
    1790049600,
    0.17
   ],
   [
    1790136000,
    0.17
   ],
   [
    1790222400,
    0.16
   ]
  ]
 },
 "license": "CC BY 4.0",
 "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
 "attribution": {
  "required": true,
  "text": "Odds data: Kalshi View (kalshiview.com)",
  "url": "https://kalshiview.com/markets/2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-generic-ballot/",
  "html": "<a href=\"https://kalshiview.com/markets/2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-generic-ballot/\">Odds data: Kalshi View</a>"
 },
 "source": "Kalshi public trade API; Kalshi View is not affiliated with Kalshi. Verify on Kalshi before trading."
}