Who will advance in the Brazilian presidential election? Kalshi Odds
Snapshot October 4, 2026 at 11:20 UTC · Category: Elections · Event KXBRPRESADVANCE-26OCT04
As of October 4, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Flavio Bolsonaro at 98%, followed by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 96%, Renan Santos at 3.0%. 140.8K contracts have traded, 112.8K in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Flavio Bolsonaro ■ Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ■ Renan Santos · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is announced to qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. If a candidate wins the first round outright, and no runoff occurs, the market for that winning candidate will resolve Yes and all other markets will resolve to No. This is determined at the time qualification is announced; subsequent withdrawals, disqualifications, or changes in eligibility do not affect whether the candidate qualified. If a candidate is announced to not qualify, the market will immediately resolve to No.”
What are the Kalshi odds for Who will advance in the Brazilian presidential election?
As of October 4, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Flavio Bolsonaro at 98%, followed by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 96%, Renan Santos at 3.0%. 140.8K contracts have traded, 112.8K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Who will advance in the Brazilian presidential election market close?
The listed close date is October 3, 2028. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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Who will advance in the Brazilian presidential election? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 4). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 4, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/who-will-advance-in-the-brazilian-presidential-election/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketswhowilladvanceinthebrazilianpresidentialelection, title = {Who will advance in the Brazilian presidential election? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-04 11:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/who-will-advance-in-the-brazilian-presidential-election/}}
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