Snapshot September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC · Category: Economics · Event KXBRRATECUT-27JAN01
As of September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC, the leading outcome is Exactly 6 cuts at 42%, followed by 7 or more cuts at 36%, Exactly 5 cuts at 20%. 128.9K contracts have traded, 4.1K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h change | Volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 6 cuts | 42% | +8 pts | 21.9K | 10.0K |
| 7 or more cuts | 36% | · | 37.3K | 19.2K |
| Exactly 5 cuts | 20% | -13 pts | 21.6K | 5.2K |
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
■ Exactly 6 cuts ■ 7 or more cuts ■ Exactly 5 cuts · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the total number of Central Bank of Brazil rate cuts for 2026 is exactly 5, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the number of discrete decreases in the Brazil interest rate value during calendar year 2026. Each separate decrease counts as one rate cut, regardless of the size of the decrease. For example, a decrease from 14.75% to 14.50% counts as one rate cut, and a decrease from 14.50% to 14.25% would count as another rate cut. Rate cuts before market issuance count, provided they occurred during calendar year 2026. As of issuance, Brazil has already had 2 qualifying 2026 rate cuts: the Selic target was reduced to 14.75% in March 2026 and to 14.50% in April 2026. Rate hikes do not offset prior rate cuts. If the Brazil interest rate is cut, then later hiked, then later cut again, the two cuts count separately.”
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As of September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC, the leading outcome is Exactly 6 cuts at 42%, followed by 7 or more cuts at 36%, Exactly 5 cuts at 20%. 128.9K contracts have traded, 4.1K in the last 24 hours.
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
The listed close date is January 1, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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