Snapshot October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Economics · Event KXRECSSNBER-26
As of October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes at 5.5% (6¢ per contract), with 3.6M contracts traded in total and 6.1K in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Yes · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP.”
As of October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes at 5.5% (6¢ per contract), with 3.6M contracts traded in total and 6.1K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Recession this year market close?
The listed close date is January 31, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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<iframe src="https://kalshiview.com/embed/markets/recession-this-year/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Recession this year? Kalshi odds"></iframe>
<p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/recession-this-year/">Recession this year? odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
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<a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/recession-this-year/"><img src="https://kalshiview.com/embed/markets/recession-this-year/badge.svg" alt="Recession this year? Kalshi odds" height="20"></a>
[](https://kalshiview.com/markets/recession-this-year/)
Recession this year? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 8). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/recession-this-year/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketsrecessionthisyear, title = {Recession this year? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-08 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/recession-this-year/}}
Daily Kalshi market checks, results and settlement coverage are posted in the @Kalshi_market channel on Telegram. It is a coverage feed, not a per-market alert service.
