How many House seats will Republicans win in the Midterms? Kalshi Odds
Snapshot October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Politics · Event KXRHOUSEWON-26NOV03
As of October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is At least 182 at 90%, followed by At least 186 at 84%, At least 190 at 76%. 77.8K contracts have traded, 949 in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ At least 182 ■ At least 186 ■ At least 190 · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the number of U.S. House seats won by Republican Party candidates is at least 182 in the 2026 U.S. House elections, then the market resolves to Yes. A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records a Republican designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in the November 3, 2026 general election; a recognized state affiliate, any one of several ballot lines, or a declared write-in candidacy so recorded all qualify. Caucus affiliation, endorsements and later party changes do not affect the count: a member elected without a Republican designation who caucuses with Republicans is not counted, and one elected as a Republican candidate who later leaves remains counted. Only the regular general election in each of the 435 congressional districts for the term beginning January 3, 2027 counts; a special election for a 119th Congress vacancy is disregarded whenever held. No …”
What are the Kalshi odds for How many House seats will Republicans win in the Midterms?
As of October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is At least 182 at 90%, followed by At least 186 at 84%, At least 190 at 76%. 77.8K contracts have traded, 949 in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the How many House seats will Republicans win in the Midterms market close?
The listed close date is January 3, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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How many House seats will Republicans win in the Midterms? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 8). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/how-many-house-seats-will-republicans-win-in-the-midterms/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketshowmanyhouseseatswillrepublicanswininthemidterms, title = {How many House seats will Republicans win in the Midterms? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-08 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/how-many-house-seats-will-republicans-win-in-the-midterms/}}
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