Snapshot September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC · Category: Politics · Event KXRHOUSEWON-26NOV03
As of September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC, the leading outcome is At least 182 at 90%, followed by At least 186 at 84%, At least 190 at 82%. 50.9K contracts have traded, 20.7K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h change | Volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 182 | 90% | · | 4.0K | 2.1K |
| At least 186 | 84% | +2 pts | 2.0K | 2.0K |
| At least 190 | 82% | -3 pts | 4.3K | 2.9K |
| At least 194 | 72% | · | 3.4K | 1.9K |
| At least 198 | 59% | -1 pts | 5.4K | 2.7K |
| At least 202 | 44% | · | 156 | 156 |
| At least 206 | 32% | -7 pts | 6.7K | 3.4K |
| At least 210 | 24% | -1 pts | 1.5K | 1.5K |
| At least 214 | 13% | +7 pts | 4.7K | 2.6K |
| At least 218 | 8.5% | -1 pts | 8.1K | 1.0K |
| At least 222 | 7.0% | +3 pts | 2.1K | 2.0K |
| At least 226 | 3.5% | -4 pts | 3.3K | 2.6K |
| At least 230 | 3.5% | -3 pts | 1.4K | 731 |
| At least 234 | 3.0% | +1 pts | 3.9K | 1.5K |
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
■ At least 186 ■ At least 190 · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the number of U.S. House seats won by Republican Party candidates is at least 182 in the 2026 U.S. House elections, then the market resolves to Yes. A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records a Republican designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in the November 3, 2026 general election; a recognized state affiliate, any one of several ballot lines, or a declared write-in candidacy so recorded all qualify. Caucus affiliation, endorsements and later party changes do not affect the count: a member elected without a Republican designation who caucuses with Republicans is not counted, and one elected as a Republican candidate who later leaves remains counted. Only the regular general election in each of the 435 congressional districts for the term beginning January 3, 2027 counts; a special election for a 119th Congress vacancy is disregarded whenever held. No …”
Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees and the payout calculator.
As of September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC, the leading outcome is At least 182 at 90%, followed by At least 186 at 84%, At least 190 at 82%. 50.9K contracts have traded, 20.7K in the last 24 hours.
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
The listed close date is January 3, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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<iframe src="https://kalshiview.com/embed/markets/how-many-house-seats-will-republicans-win-in-the-midterms/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="How many House seats will Republicans win in the Midterms? Kalshi odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/how-many-house-seats-will-republicans-win-in-the-midterms/">How many House seats will Republicans win in the Midterms? odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
/api/v1/markets/how-many-house-seats-will-republicans-win-in-the-midterms.json (CC BY 4.0: credit “Kalshi View” with a link).