How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi Odds: Below 193 30%

Snapshot October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Elections · Event KXRHOUSESEATS-27

Current odds

Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.

Last 30 days

Outcome	Chance	24h change	Volume	Open interest
Below 193	30%	-1 pts	673.6K	406.2K
198-202	18%	+1 pts	211.4K	152.4K
203-207	16%	+1 pts	184.7K	148.5K
193-197	15%	·	251.6K	151.8K
208-212	8.8%	-2 pts	209.7K	171.1K
213-217	5.8%	·	249.4K	192.7K
218-222	5.5%	-3 pts	498.7K	321.0K
223-227	2.4%	·	422.6K	285.4K
228-232	1.4%	·	391.4K	238.0K
Above 237	1.2%	·	327.9K	277.3K
233-237	1.2%	·	314.2K	239.0K

■ Below 193 ■ 198-202 ■ 203-207 · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data

How this market settles

“If the Republican Party has below 193 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Individuals caucusing with the Republicans will be included”

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Frequently asked questions

What are the Kalshi odds for How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

As of October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Below 193 at 30%, followed by 198-202 at 18%, 203-207 at 16%. 3.7M contracts have traded, 17.6K in the last 24 hours.

How are these Kalshi odds calculated?

Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.

When does the How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms market close?

The listed close date is February 1, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.

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How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 8). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/how-many-house-seats-will-republicans-hold-after-the-midterms/

BibTeX

@misc{kalshiview2026marketshowmanyhouseseatswillrepublicansholdafterthemidterms, title = {How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-08 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/how-many-house-seats-will-republicans-hold-after-the-midterms/}}

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