Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory: Kalshi Odds
Snapshot October 4, 2026 at 11:20 UTC · Category: Elections · Event KXBRPRES1MOV-BRPRES26
As of October 4, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Lula da Silva, 0-5% at 50%, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-5% at 36%, Lula da Silva, 5-10% at 11%. 110.2K contracts have traded, 35.7K in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Lula da Silva, 0-5% ■ Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-5% ■ Lula da Silva, 5-10% · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election falls within 0% to 5%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by Lula da Silva minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Lula da Silva if Lula da Silva wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Lula da Silva loses. If Lula da Silva wins, the margin will be positive; if Lula da Silva loses, the margin will be negative; if Lula da Silva ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves …”
What are the Kalshi odds for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory?
As of October 4, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Lula da Silva, 0-5% at 50%, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-5% at 36%, Lula da Silva, 5-10% at 11%. 110.2K contracts have traded, 35.7K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory market close?
The listed close date is October 4, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory: Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 4). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 4, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-margin-of-victory/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketsbrazilpresidentialelectionfirstroundmarginofvictory, title = {Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory: Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-04 11:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-margin-of-victory/}}
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