Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Kalshi Odds
Snapshot October 4, 2026 at 11:20 UTC · Category: Elections · Event KXBRPRESIDENT2-BRPRES26-2
As of October 4, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Flávio Bolsonaro at 62%, followed by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 36%, Romeu Zema at 13%. 173.4K contracts have traded, 21.4K in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Flávio Bolsonaro ■ Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If Aldo Rebelo finishes in 2nd place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage For ranked choice voting: rank is determined by elimination order (runner-up is eliminated in final round for second place) For two-round systems: rank is based on final round results if it proceeds to second round, otherwise first-round totals For proportional representation: rank follows the electoral authority's final seat allocation order In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are …”
What are the Kalshi odds for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place?
As of October 4, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Flávio Bolsonaro at 62%, followed by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 36%, Romeu Zema at 13%. 173.4K contracts have traded, 21.4K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place market close?
The listed close date is October 4, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 4). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 4, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-2nd-place/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketsbrazilpresidentialelectionfirstround2ndplace, title = {Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-04 11:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-2nd-place/}}
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