{ "slug": "who-will-be-charged-with-a-federal-crime-in-2026", "event_ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01", "series_ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE", "title": "Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?", "category": "Politics", "url": "https://kalshiview.com/markets/who-will-be-charged-with-a-federal-crime-in-2026/", "kalshi_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfederalcharge", "updated": "2026-10-06T23:20:00+00:00", "closed": false, "volume_contracts": 1679258.4, "volume_24h_contracts": 24297.55, "open_interest_contracts": 688011.63, "outcomes": [ { "name": "John Brennan", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-JBRE", "probability": 0.275, "change_24h": 0.08, "volume_contracts": 68967.34, "open_interest_contracts": 28718.92, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Anthony Fauci", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-AFAU", "probability": 0.265, "change_24h": -0.01, "volume_contracts": 457652.83, "open_interest_contracts": 217108.69, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Leon Black", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-LBLA", "probability": 0.17, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 167.57, "open_interest_contracts": 145.0, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Lisa Cook", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-LCOO", "probability": 0.14, "change_24h": 0.02, "volume_contracts": 26702.81, "open_interest_contracts": 15210.98, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Letitia James", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-LJAM", "probability": 0.125, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 66769.33, "open_interest_contracts": 19464.4, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Peter Strzok", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-PSTR", "probability": 0.125, "change_24h": 0.02, "volume_contracts": 10882.26, "open_interest_contracts": 6825.39, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "James Clapper", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-JCLA", "probability": 0.12, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 19875.78, "open_interest_contracts": 5177.33, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Dan J. Sullivan", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-DJSUL", "probability": 0.12, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 4992.94, "open_interest_contracts": 4560.55, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Gustavo Petro", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-GPET", "probability": 0.11, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 12003.56, "open_interest_contracts": 4935.36, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Jack Smith", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-JSMI", "probability": 0.105, "change_24h": -0.03, "volume_contracts": 73978.93, "open_interest_contracts": 26152.54, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Chris Krebs", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-CKRE", "probability": 0.105, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 7210.45, "open_interest_contracts": 3119.32, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Ilhan Omar", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-IOMA", "probability": 0.1015, "change_24h": 0.01, "volume_contracts": 149236.35, "open_interest_contracts": 61280.97, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Fani Willis", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-FWIL", "probability": 0.0955, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 10336.44, "open_interest_contracts": 4962.03, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Cassidy Hutchinson", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-CHUT", "probability": 0.095, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 4926.85, "open_interest_contracts": 2666.87, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Gavin Newsom", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-GNEW", "probability": 0.09, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 14738.78, "open_interest_contracts": 7890.48, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Lisa Monaco", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-LMON", "probability": 0.09, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 1791.96, "open_interest_contracts": 1278.37, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Jennifer Siebel Newsom", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-JNEW", "probability": 0.085, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 7471.64, "open_interest_contracts": 3595.4, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Alvin Bragg", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-ABRA", "probability": 0.072, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 21321.96, "open_interest_contracts": 8971.36, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Miles Taylor", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-MTAY", "probability": 0.07, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 2063.97, "open_interest_contracts": 819.85, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Hunter Biden", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-HBID", "probability": 0.0695, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 14311.76, "open_interest_contracts": 8037.73, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Elissa Slotkin", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-ESLO", "probability": 0.066, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 8696.47, "open_interest_contracts": 2464.05, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Reid Hoffman", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-RHOF", "probability": 0.06, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 4508.02, "open_interest_contracts": 2522.3, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Liz Cheney", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-LCHE", "probability": 0.056, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 11068.17, "open_interest_contracts": 5352.39, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "George Soros", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-GSOR", "probability": 0.055, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 6516.52, "open_interest_contracts": 5063.55, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Mark Kelly", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-MKEL", "probability": 0.0545, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 18870.63, "open_interest_contracts": 6274.17, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Barack Obama", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-BOBA", "probability": 0.0525, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 104760.83, "open_interest_contracts": 53516.4, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "E. Jean Carroll", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-ECAR", "probability": 0.05, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 15752.5, "open_interest_contracts": 7254.64, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Andrew Weissmann", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-AWEI", "probability": 0.05, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 3277.15, "open_interest_contracts": 2054.39, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Hillary Clinton", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-HCLI", "probability": 0.0455, "change_24h": -0.001, "volume_contracts": 42422.07, "open_interest_contracts": 18719.96, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Joe Kent", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-JKEN", "probability": 0.0455, "change_24h": -0.059, "volume_contracts": 6143.53, "open_interest_contracts": 2967.62, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Bill Clinton", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-BCLI", "probability": 0.045, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 54681.43, "open_interest_contracts": 12019.67, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Christopher Wray", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-CWRA", "probability": 0.045, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 7459.48, "open_interest_contracts": 4378.94, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Tim Walz", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-TWAL", "probability": 0.0445, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 264961.3, "open_interest_contracts": 68788.6, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Tucker Carlson", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-TCAR", "probability": 0.0445, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 7996.48, "open_interest_contracts": 3704.98, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Mark Milley", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-MMIL", "probability": 0.0405, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 8235.84, "open_interest_contracts": 4678.58, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Jacob Frey", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-JFRE", "probability": 0.0345, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 11850.41, "open_interest_contracts": 6091.23, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Adam Schiff", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-ASCH", "probability": 0.0325, "change_24h": 0.033, "volume_contracts": 32089.22, "open_interest_contracts": 11295.78, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Jerome Powell", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-JPOW", "probability": 0.0325, "change_24h": -0.014, "volume_contracts": 24305.57, "open_interest_contracts": 11604.82, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Pam Bondi", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-PBON", "probability": 0.0315, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 22404.17, "open_interest_contracts": 8905.44, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Keith Ellison", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-KELL", "probability": 0.028, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 19305.45, "open_interest_contracts": 7156.32, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Joe Biden", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-JBID", "probability": 0.027, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 23211.65, "open_interest_contracts": 9584.64, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" }, { "name": "Chris Christie", "ticker": "KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-CCHR", "probability": 0.0205, "change_24h": 0.0, "volume_contracts": 5338.0, "open_interest_contracts": 2691.62, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00" } ], "history": { "John Brennan": [ [ 1788753600, 0.33 ], [ 1788840000, 0.33 ], [ 1789012800, 0.34 ], [ 1789099200, 0.3 ], [ 1789185600, 0.28 ], [ 1789272000, 0.35 ], [ 1789358400, 0.32 ], [ 1789444800, 0.34 ], [ 1789531200, 0.43 ], [ 1789617600, 0.42 ], [ 1789704000, 0.52 ], [ 1789790400, 0.52 ], [ 1789876800, 0.52 ], [ 1789963200, 0.56 ], [ 1790049600, 0.48 ], [ 1790136000, 0.46 ], [ 1790222400, 0.44 ], [ 1790308800, 0.46 ], [ 1790395200, 0.47 ], [ 1790481600, 0.49 ], [ 1790568000, 0.49 ], [ 1790654400, 0.47 ], [ 1790740800, 0.47 ], [ 1790827200, 0.37 ], [ 1790913600, 0.31 ], [ 1791000000, 0.26 ], [ 1791086400, 0.25 ], [ 1791172800, 0.27 ], [ 1791259200, 0.28 ] ], "Anthony Fauci": [ [ 1788753600, 0.37 ], [ 1788840000, 0.38 ], [ 1788926400, 0.37 ], [ 1789012800, 0.35 ], [ 1789099200, 0.34 ], [ 1789185600, 0.34 ], [ 1789272000, 0.33 ], [ 1789358400, 0.32 ], [ 1789444800, 0.29 ], [ 1789531200, 0.28 ], [ 1789617600, 0.3 ], [ 1789704000, 0.29 ], [ 1789790400, 0.29 ], [ 1789876800, 0.26 ], [ 1789963200, 0.3 ], [ 1790049600, 0.29 ], [ 1790136000, 0.27 ], [ 1790222400, 0.27 ], [ 1790308800, 0.3 ], [ 1790395200, 0.29 ], [ 1790481600, 0.27 ], [ 1790568000, 0.28 ], [ 1790654400, 0.27 ], [ 1790740800, 0.31 ], [ 1790827200, 0.28 ], [ 1790913600, 0.27 ], [ 1791000000, 0.28 ], [ 1791086400, 0.27 ], [ 1791172800, 0.27 ], [ 1791259200, 0.26 ] ], "Leon Black": [ [ 1789790400, 0.3 ], [ 1789876800, 0.31 ], [ 1789963200, 0.34 ], [ 1790136000, 0.32 ], [ 1790222400, 0.3 ], [ 1790308800, 0.05 ], [ 1790913600, 0.16 ] ] }, "license": "CC BY 4.0", "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/", "attribution": { "required": true, "text": "Odds data: Kalshi View (kalshiview.com)", "url": "https://kalshiview.com/markets/who-will-be-charged-with-a-federal-crime-in-2026/", "html": "Odds data: Kalshi View" }, "source": "Kalshi public trade API; Kalshi View is not affiliated with Kalshi. Verify on Kalshi before trading." }