Snapshot October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Elections · Event CONTROLS-2026
As of October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Democratic Party at 60%, followed by Republican Party at 40%. 13.9M contracts have traded, 153.2K in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Democratic Party ■ Republican Party · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the Democratic Party has won control of the U.S. Senate in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market may be determined early based on a consensus of media calls projecting control of the U.S. Senate. See full rules for details. Otherwise, victory will be determined by the party identification of the President pro tempore of the Senate on February 1, 2027.”
What are the Kalshi odds for Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
As of October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Democratic Party at 60%, followed by Republican Party at 40%. 13.9M contracts have traded, 153.2K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Which party will win the U.S. Senate market close?
The listed close date is February 1, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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Which party will win the U.S. Senate? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 10). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/which-party-will-win-the-u-s-senate/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketswhichpartywillwintheussenate, title = {Which party will win the U.S. Senate? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-10 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/which-party-will-win-the-u-s-senate/}}
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