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Which Democrats will underperform Kamala Harris in 2026? Kalshi Odds
Snapshot September 29, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Elections · Event KXUNDERHARRIS-27JAN04
As of September 29, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Tina Kotek at 94%, followed by Troy Jackson at 80%, Peggy Flanagan at 40%. 21.6K contracts have traded, 21.6K in the last 24 hours.
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | 24h change | Volume | Open interest |
|---|
| Tina Kotek | 94% | · | 3.3K | 2.9K |
| Troy Jackson | 80% | · | 850 | 695 |
| Peggy Flanagan | 40% | · | 5.0K | 3.2K |
| Keisha Lance Bottoms | 36% | · | 2.6K | 2.5K |
| Kathy Hochul | 33% | · | 3.1K | 1.5K |
| Angie Nixon | 20% | · | 2.4K | 1.7K |
| Chris Pappas | 19% | · | 584 | 502 |
| Abdul El-Sayed | 16% | · | 425 | 425 |
| David Jolly | 12% | · | 3.4K | 3.3K |
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If Troy Jackson's certified vote share in the 2026 general election is lower than Kamala Harris's certified 2024 presidential vote share in their state, then the market resolves to Yes. A candidate's 2026 vote share is their share of all votes cast in the November 3, 2026 general election for the listed office, as certified by that state's official election authority, including votes received on every ballot line on which the candidate appears. Where a race uses ranked-choice tabulation or a runoff, the first-round (first-choice) share is used. Kamala Harris's 2024 vote share is her share of that state's certified 2024 presidential vote, including every ballot line on which she appeared, per the Federal Election Commission's official 2024 presidential general election results. Shares are compared unrounded. Offices: Troy Jackson, U.S. Senate (Maine); Tina Kotek, Governor (Oregon); …”
Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees, the fee calculator, the payout calculator and the APY calculator.
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Frequently asked questions
What are the Kalshi odds for Which Democrats will underperform Kamala Harris in 2026?
As of September 29, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Tina Kotek at 94%, followed by Troy Jackson at 80%, Peggy Flanagan at 40%. 21.6K contracts have traded, 21.6K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Which Democrats will underperform Kamala Harris in 2026 market close?
The listed close date is January 4, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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Which Democrats will underperform Kamala Harris in 2026? Kalshi Odds. (2026, September 29). Kalshi View. Retrieved September 29, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/which-democrats-will-underperform-kamala-harris-in-2026/
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@misc{kalshiview2026marketswhichdemocratswillunderperformkamalaharrisin2026, title = {Which Democrats will underperform Kamala Harris in 2026? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Sep}, note = {Snapshot 2026-09-29 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/which-democrats-will-underperform-kamala-harris-in-2026/}}HTML credit
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