Snapshot October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Financials · Event KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27
As of October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Before 2028 at 65%, followed by Before May 1, 2027 at 38%, Before Apr 1, 2027 at 34%. 1.3M contracts have traded, 1.1K in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Before 2028 ■ Before May 1, 2027 ■ Before Apr 1, 2027 · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The announcement must be made through official company channels including press releases, SEC filings (8-K, 10-K, 10-Q), earnings calls, investor presentations, verified social media accounts, or official statements to media subsequently confirmed by the company. CEO statements through official channels qualify. Rumors, speculation, unconfirmed reports, leaked information, third-party announcements without company confirmation, and preliminary discussions do not qualify. The announcement must occur after market issuance. Companies are …”
What are the Kalshi odds for When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
As of October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Before 2028 at 65%, followed by Before May 1, 2027 at 38%, Before Apr 1, 2027 at 34%. 1.3M contracts have traded, 1.1K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the When will Tesla and SpaceX merge market close?
The listed close dates range from November 1, 2026 to January 1, 2028. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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<p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/when-will-tesla-and-spacex-merge/">When will Tesla and SpaceX merge? odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
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When will Tesla and SpaceX merge? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 10). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/when-will-tesla-and-spacex-merge/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketswhenwillteslaandspacexmerge, title = {When will Tesla and SpaceX merge? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-10 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/when-will-tesla-and-spacex-merge/}}
Daily Kalshi market checks, results and settlement coverage are posted in the @Kalshi_market channel on Telegram. It is a coverage feed, not a per-market alert service.
