Kalshi odds today › Financials
Snapshot September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC · Category: Financials · Event KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27
As of September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC, the leading outcome is Before 2028 at 66%, followed by Before May 1, 2027 at 46%, Before Apr 1, 2027 at 46%. 1.3M contracts have traded, 2.9K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h change | Volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2028 | 66% | · | 22.3K | 11.8K |
| Before May 1, 2027 | 46% | +1 pts | 79.8K | 24.7K |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 46% | · | 59.4K | 20.7K |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 32% | · | 29.5K | 11.5K |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 24% | +2 pts | 19.4K | 11.3K |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 21% | · | 53.6K | 24.5K |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 15% | +1 pts | 39.7K | 17.4K |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 11% | · | 149.9K | 91.3K |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 1.0% | · | 410.7K | 328.2K |
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
■ Before 2028 ■ Before May 1, 2027 ■ Before Apr 1, 2027 · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The announcement must be made through official company channels including press releases, SEC filings (8-K, 10-K, 10-Q), earnings calls, investor presentations, verified social media accounts, or official statements to media subsequently confirmed by the company. CEO statements through official channels qualify. Rumors, speculation, unconfirmed reports, leaked information, third-party announcements without company confirmation, and preliminary discussions do not qualify. The announcement must occur after market issuance. Companies are …”
Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees and the payout calculator.
As of September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC, the leading outcome is Before 2028 at 66%, followed by Before May 1, 2027 at 46%, Before Apr 1, 2027 at 46%. 1.3M contracts have traded, 2.9K in the last 24 hours.
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
The listed close dates range from October 1, 2026 to January 1, 2028. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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<iframe src="https://kalshiview.com/embed/markets/when-will-tesla-and-spacex-merge/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="When will Tesla and SpaceX merge? Kalshi odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/when-will-tesla-and-spacex-merge/">When will Tesla and SpaceX merge? odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
/api/v1/markets/when-will-tesla-and-spacex-merge.json (CC BY 4.0: credit “Kalshi View” with a link).