Snapshot October 1, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Financials · Event KXINXMINY-01JAN2027
As of October 1, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is 6,300 or below at 16%, followed by 6,200 or below at 11%, 6,100 or below at 9.8%. 884.7K contracts have traded, 20.4K in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ 6,300 or below ■ 6,200 or below ■ 6,100 or below · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the value of the S&P 500 index value starting Jan 1, 2026 and ending on Jan 1, 2027 is below 6300.01, then the market resolves to Yes.”
What are the Kalshi odds for How low will the S&P get this year?
As of October 1, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is 6,300 or below at 16%, followed by 6,200 or below at 11%, 6,100 or below at 9.8%. 884.7K contracts have traded, 20.4K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the How low will the S&P get this year market close?
The listed close date is January 1, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
Use this data
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How low will the S&P get this year? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 1). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 1, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/how-low-will-the-s-p-get-this-year/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketshowlowwillthespgetthisyear, title = {How low will the S&P get this year? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-01 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/how-low-will-the-s-p-get-this-year/}}
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