Snapshot October 4, 2026 at 11:20 UTC · Category: Science and Technology · Event KXTOPMODEL-26OCT31
As of October 4, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, the leading outcome is gemini-4-argon-high at 54%, followed by claude-fable-5.1-max at 1.0%, claude-opus-5.5-high at 1.0%. 32.6K contracts have traded, 5.3K in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ gemini-4-argon-high ■ claude-fable-5.1-max ■ claude-opus-5.5-high · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If claude-opus-5.5-high is the top-ranked AI model on Oct 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.”
What are the Kalshi odds for Top AI model this month?
As of October 4, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, the leading outcome is gemini-4-argon-high at 54%, followed by claude-fable-5.1-max at 1.0%, claude-opus-5.5-high at 1.0%. 32.6K contracts have traded, 5.3K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Top AI model this month market close?
The listed close date is October 31, 2026. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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Top AI model this month: Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 4). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 4, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/top-ai-model-this-month/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketstopaimodelthismonth, title = {Top AI model this month: Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-04 11:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/top-ai-model-this-month/}}
Daily Kalshi market checks, results and settlement coverage are posted in the @Kalshi_market channel on Telegram. It is a coverage feed, not a per-market alert service.
