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OpenAI market share this week: Kalshi Odds
Snapshot October 5, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Science and Technology · Event KXOPENSHARE-26OCT12
As of October 5, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Above 14.1% at 96%, followed by Above 16.5% at 86%, Above 17.5% at 68%. 21.0K contracts have traded, 21.0K in the last 24 hours.
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | 24h change | Volume | Open interest |
|---|
| Above 14.1% | 96% | · | 0 | 0 |
| Above 16.5% | 86% | · | 4.7K | 1.5K |
| Above 17.5% | 68% | · | 4.4K | 2.4K |
| Above 17.8% | 54% | · | 4.0K | 3.0K |
| Above 18.1% | 46% | · | 4.0K | 3.0K |
| Above 18.4% | 37% | · | 2.2K | 2.2K |
| Above 18.7% | 32% | · | 1.7K | 1.6K |
| Above 19.8% | 5.5% | · | 20 | 20 |
| Above 21.9% | 1.5% | · | 0 | 0 |
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If OpenAI scores above 14.1% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Oct 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This event will resolve based on 10:00AM ET Monday updated market share values reported by OpenRouter, rounded to one decimal place, for the week of Oct 5, 2026. If the named model author’s market share is not separately identified in the source chart, including if it is included in “Others,” all markets in the event will resolve to No. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the governing benchmark. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.”
Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees, the fee calculator, the payout calculator and the APY calculator.
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Frequently asked questions
What are the Kalshi odds for OpenAI market share this week?
As of October 5, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Above 14.1% at 96%, followed by Above 16.5% at 86%, Above 17.5% at 68%. 21.0K contracts have traded, 21.0K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the OpenAI market share this week market close?
The listed close date is October 12, 2026. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
Use this data
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APA
OpenAI market share this week: Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 5). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 5, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/openai-market-share-this-week-kxopenshare-26oct12/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketsopenaimarketsharethisweekkxopenshare26oct12, title = {OpenAI market share this week: Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-05 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/openai-market-share-this-week-kxopenshare-26oct12/}}HTML credit
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