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Number of rate hikes in 2026? Kalshi Odds

Snapshot September 24, 2026 at 19:49 UTC · Category: Economics · Event KXRATEHIKE-2026

As of September 24, 2026 at 19:49 UTC, the leading outcome is Exactly 2 at 48%, followed by Exactly 3 at 34%, Exactly 1 at 8.5%. 71.5K contracts have traded, 18.6K in the last 24 hours.

Current odds

OutcomeChance24h changeVolumeOpen interest
Exactly 248%
-4 pts12.0K7.8K
Exactly 334%
·39.8K32.1K
Exactly 18.5%
·12.1K8.9K
At least 42.0%
·4.3K3.2K

Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.

Last 30 days

0%25%50%75%100%Sep 17Sep 24

■ Exactly 2 ■ Exactly 3 ■ Exactly 1 · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data

How this market settles

Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:

“If the number of rate hikes by the Federal Open Market Committee during calendar year 2026 is exactly 1, then the market resolves to Yes. Please note the following definition of a "rate hike": A single ‘hike’ is considered an increase in the upper bound by at least 1 basis point and up to and including 25 basis points. An increase of the upper bound of the target range 26-50 basis points hike is considered two hikes. An increase of the upper bound of the target range 51-75 basis points is considered three hikes.”

Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees, the fee calculator, the payout calculator and the APY calculator.

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Frequently asked questions

What are the Kalshi odds for Number of rate hikes in 2026?

As of September 24, 2026 at 19:49 UTC, the leading outcome is Exactly 2 at 48%, followed by Exactly 3 at 34%, Exactly 1 at 8.5%. 71.5K contracts have traded, 18.6K in the last 24 hours.

How are these Kalshi odds calculated?

Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.

When does the Number of rate hikes in 2026 market close?

The listed close date is January 3, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.

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Number of rate hikes in 2026? Kalshi Odds. (2026, September 24). Kalshi View. Retrieved September 24, 2026 at 19:49 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/number-of-rate-hikes-in-2026/

BibTeX

@misc{kalshiview2026marketsnumberofratehikesin2026, title = {Number of rate hikes in 2026? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Sep}, note = {Snapshot 2026-09-24 19:49 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/number-of-rate-hikes-in-2026/}}

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