Kalshi odds today › Climate and Weather
Snapshot September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC · Category: Climate and Weather · Event KXMEAD-26DEC
As of September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC, the leading outcome is Above 1033 Ft at 66%, followed by Above 1035 Ft at 59%, Above 1034 Ft at 49%. 24.3K contracts have traded, 2.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h change | Volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1033 Ft | 66% | -25 pts | 971 | 628 |
| Above 1035 Ft | 59% | +5 pts | 856 | 577 |
| Above 1034 Ft | 49% | · | 260 | 225 |
| Above 1037 Ft | 32% | -7 pts | 1.9K | 695 |
| Above 1036 Ft | 30% | -15 pts | 1.6K | 936 |
| Above 1038 Ft | 27% | +7 pts | 1.4K | 790 |
| Above 1039 Ft | 24% | +7 pts | 11.4K | 1.9K |
| Above 1040 Ft | 23% | +22 pts | 6.0K | 1.4K |
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
■ Above 1033 Ft ■ Above 1035 Ft ■ Above 1034 Ft · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation at Hoover Dam for Dec 2026 is strictly greater than 1033 feet, then the market resolves to Yes.”
Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees and the payout calculator.
As of September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC, the leading outcome is Above 1033 Ft at 66%, followed by Above 1035 Ft at 59%, Above 1034 Ft at 49%. 24.3K contracts have traded, 2.3K in the last 24 hours.
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
The listed close date is January 7, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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<iframe src="https://kalshiview.com/embed/markets/lake-mead-end-of-month-water-elevation-in-dec-2026/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Lake Mead end-of-month water elevation in Dec 2026? Kalshi odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/lake-mead-end-of-month-water-elevation-in-dec-2026/">Lake Mead end-of-month water elevation in Dec 2026? odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
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